Market News
Soybeans, corn down on less threatening weather forecasts
Soybeans were lower on speculative and technical selling. Many forecasts have less threatening weather conditions in much of the Midwest and Plains starting next week. August is the critical month for beans, so if that pattern extends into next month as expected, it could boost yields. That’s especially critical with the uncertainty over the actual planted acreage total with a producer resurvey being conducted in parts of the northern Plains. China bought 136,000 tons of new crop U.S. soybeans Wednesday morning. That’s the first announced sale of soybeans since June 9th and the first announced sale to China since June 1st. Chinese demand for U.S. beans has tailed off over the past few months due to a few different factors, including a seasonal shift to recently harvested beans from Brazil. The USDA’s weekly sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Soybean meal was mixed on bull spreading and bean oil was pressured by the bearish sentiment surrounding global vegetable oils.
Corn was modestly lower on speculative and technical selling. Corn is also watching development weather, with most of the crop in the pollination phase. Overall, conditions have been mixed this year, much better in some areas than in others, but if the forecasted rain does reach the Corn Belt, it would blunt some of the impact of recent high temperatures. The USDA’s first official yield estimate of the season is in the supply, demand, and production numbers out August 12th. The trade is also waiting to see what the USDA’s Friday cattle reports indicate for potential demand. Second crop harvest conditions in Brazil generally look good. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 1.034 million barrels a day, the first increase since mid-June, and a gain of 29,000 on the week and 6,000 on the year. Stocks came out at 23.553 million barrels, 53,000 less than last week, but 1.035 million more than last year.
The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago and Kansas City mostly firm and Minneapolis lower. Wheat is heavily oversold, but export demand continues to be slow, which will limit any significant upside. That’s due in part to the recent relative strength in the dollar, which makes U.S. goods more expensive on the export market. Other factors include better than expected crop conditions in parts of Russia and Canada, which will likely offset some of the projected losses in Europe. The winter wheat harvest is close to wrapping up in some areas and spring wheat conditions are generally good, with recent rainfall in parts of the northern U.S. Plains and Canada. There’s been no announced progress on the recent talks involving Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the U.N. Ukraine’s entire ag industry has been severely impacted by Russia’s invasion. Even if an export corridor for Ukraine is opened in the Black Sea, there are concerns about insuring those ships.
