Soybeans extend losses
Soybeans were sharply lower on fund and technical selling. Beans followed the lead of vegetable oils, with bean oil dropping on talk of lower biodiesel demand following the recent sharply lower trend in crude oil. Soybean meal finished mixed on bull spreading. The U.S. crop is nearly planted and the USDA’s condition rating was down 2% on the week, but still in relatively good condition. The USDA’s planted area totals are out June 30th and next round of supply, demand, and production estimates is scheduled for July 12th. Agroconsult says Brazil’s recently harvested soybean crop totaled 126.9 million tons, compared to the prior projection of 124.6 million tons. Brazil’s record soybean crop has played a role in the recent dip in U.S. export sales, especially announced sales to China and unknown destinations. There are reports of slowdowns in interior movement in Argentina because of a lack of available diesel.
Corn was mostly lower on bull spreading. Corn consolidated, watching development weather, with more moderate, but still hot, temperatures in the forecast and scattered rain. A hot, dry pattern is in the forecast for the first week of July, which would impact pollination. The USDA’s national good to excellent rating declined by 2% over the past week, but the crop, for now, remains in generally good condition overall. Ukraine’s Ag Customs Service says that since the start of June, corn exports are 803,000 tons, pushing the marketing year to date total to 23.12 million tons. The marketing year for Ukraine runs from July 1st through June 30th. Agroconsult has increased its outlook for Brazil’s second corn crop to 89.3 million tons, compared to their last guess of 87.6 million, with CONAB’s next estimate due on July 7th. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Thursday. Ethanol and feed demand have been solid, even if exports have been unspectacular. The USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report will be released June 30th.
The wheat complex was mostly lower. Chicago and Kansas City did see some support during the session from concerns about the winter crop and new buying interest after the move to multi-month lows but most contracts couldn’t follow through due to slow demand. Nearby Chicago did finish firm, but most months were down, and Kansas City closed fully lower. Minneapolis was down on the week-to-week improvement in the spring wheat condition rating and the recent rain in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada. Reports from India have the lowest wheat yields in decades following extreme heat during key development phases. There’s been no change in the export corridor discussion for Ukraine. Most of the discussions have been between Russia and Turkey, with little to no involvement from Kyiv. Two companies, Bunge and Viterra, have each reported a strike by Russia against grain facilities in Ukraine, halting operations. In addition to sanctions levied against Moscow following the invasion and sales duties, Russian exports this summer could be limited by higher trade in the ruble, scarcity of available shipping capacity, and slow farmer selling. Russia has also been accused of selling grain stolen from Ukraine. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says wheat exports this month have been 78,000 tons, brining the annual total to 18.676 million tons, with just over a week remaining in the current marketing year. SovEcon estimates Russia’s new wheat crop at 89.2 million tons, up 600,000 from the prior guess.