News
USDA raises new crop cotton, rice carryout
The USDA has raised new crop cotton and rice ending stocks projections.
New crop cotton ending stocks are now seen at 3.3 million bales, up 400,000 from June, following an increase in the production guess, which canceled out higher export demand. Old crop cotton ending stocks were unchanged.
New crop rice ending stocks are pegged at 41.3 million hundredweight, up 2.3 million on the month, with a decrease in production and increase in exports canceled out by larger beginning stocks and higher imports. Old crop rice ending stocks were above a month ago due to lower domestic use expectations.
The new marketing year for cotton and rice starts August 1st, with updated supply and demand estimates out August 12th.
Breakdown of domestic cotton and rice tables:
2020/21 cotton ending stocks are estimated at 3.15 million bales, compared to 3.15 million in June and 7.25 million for 2019/20. The average 2020/21 farm price for upland cotton is estimated at $.665 per pound, compared to $.67 a month ago and $.596 for the previous marketing year.
2021/22 cotton ending stocks are pegged at 3.3 million bales, compared to 2.9 million last month. The USDA now has production at 17.8 million bales, compared to 17 million in the last update, with planted area now at 11.72 million acres, harvested area at 10.5 million, and average yield at 814 pounds per acre, compared to the prior guesses of 12.04 million acres, 9.63 million acres, and 847 pounds per acre, respectively. That takes the domestic supply to 20.95 million bales. The USDA raised exports 400,000 bales to 15.2 million, putting total use at 17.7 million bales. The average 2020/21 farm price for upland cotton is estimated at $.75 per pound, unchanged from June.
2020/21 rice ending stocks are expected to be 45.9 million hundredweight, compared to 40.9 a month ago and 28.7 million for the previous marketing year. The UDSA lowered domestic and residual use 6 million hundredweight to 152 million and raised exports 1 million hundredweight, all rough rice, to 93 million, for total use of 245 million hundredweight. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $13.80, compared to $13.90 last month and $13.60 last marketing year.
2021/22 rice ending stocks are pegged at 41.3 million hundredweight, compared to 39 million in June. The USDA has production at 119.3 million hundredweight, compared to the last guess of 203.6 million. Planted area is now reported at 2.66 million acres, with harvested area of 2.62 million and an average yield of 7,620 pounds per acre, compared to 2.71 million acres, 2.66 million acres, and 7,651 pounds per acre, respectively. With the higher beginning stocks, lower production, and higher imports, the total supply is seen at 284.3 million hundredweight, up 1.3 million. Domestic and residual use was lowered 3 million hundredweight to 153 million, while exports were raised 2 million hundredweight, all rough rice, to 90 million, for total use of 243 million hundredweight. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $14.40 per hundredweight, compared to $14.20 a month ago.
