Drought hammers spring wheat

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Drought hammers spring wheat

The U.S. is expected to produce a smaller wheat crop in 2021, with an increase for winter wheat due to higher acreage and better yields canceled out by a big decrease for spring because of ongoing drought in the northern and northwestern U.S. Plains.

The USDA sees winter wheat at 1.364 billion bushels, 4% higher than the June guess and 16% more than 2020, with an 4% year to year rise for hard red winter and to 804.6 million bushels an 8% jump for soft red winter at 362.017 million cancelling out a 2% loss for white winter to a combined 197.588 million bushels. The average yield is projected at 53.6 bushels per acre, which would be the second highest on record, compared to 53.2 million a month ago and 50.9 a year ago, with harvested area of 25.443 million acres, compared to 23.024 million last year.

Spring wheat production is projected at 345 million bushels, a drop of 41%, with the average yield falling 17.9 bushels per acre to 30.7. Harvested area is estimated at 11.215 million acres, compared to 12.06 million in 2020.

Total 2021 production is seen at 1.746 billion bushels, compared to 1.826 billion in 2020.

The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production estimates is out August 12th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Winter Wheat: 7.905 million bushels, compared to 4.125 million in 2020; average yield of 51 bushels per acre, compared to 51 a month ago and 55 a year ago; harvested area of 155,000 acres, compared to 75,000 last year

Illinois: Winter Wheat: 52 million bushels, compared to 35.36 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 80 bushels per acre, compared to 75 a month ago and 68 a year ago; harvested area of 650,000 acres, compared to 520,000 last year

Indiana: Winter Wheat: 34.3 million bushels, compared to 17.5 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 81 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a month ago and 70 a year ago; harvested area of 300,000 acres, compared to 250,000 last year

Michigan: Winter Wheat: 43.89 million bushels, compared to 33.75 million in 2020; average yield of yield of 77 bushels per acre, compared to 80 a month ago and 75 a year ago; harvested area of 570,000 acres, compared to 450,000 last year

Minnesota: Spring Wheat: 47.2 million bushels, compared to 72.08 million in 2020; average yield of 40 bushels per acre, compared to 53 a year ago; harvested area of 1.18 million acres, compared to 1.36 million last year

Missouri: Winter Wheat: 35 million bushels, compared to 22.94 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 70 bushels per acre, compared to 70 a month ago and 62 a year ago; harvested area of 500,000 acres, compared to 570,000 last year

Nebraska: Winter Wheat: 42 million bushels, compared to 34.03 million in 2020; average yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 51 a month ago and 41 a year ago; harvested area of 840,000 acres, compared to 830,000 last year

Ohio: Winter Wheat: 44.28 million bushels, compared to 34.79 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 82 bushels per acre, compared to 78 a month ago and 71 a year ago; harvested area of 540,000 acres, compared to 490,000 last year

South Dakota: Winter Wheat: 29.92 million bushels, compared to 34.8 million in 2020; average yield of 44 bushels per acre, compared to 55 a month ago and 58 a year ago; harvested area of 680,000 acres, compared to 600,000 last year; Spring Wheat: 17.5 million bushels, compared to 35.72 million in 2020; average yield of 25 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a year ago; harvested area of 700,000 acres, compared to 760,000 last year

Tennessee: Winter Wheat: 23.68 million bushels, compared to 13.57 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 74 bushels per acre, compared to 69 a month ago and 59 a year ago; harvested area of 320,000 acres, compared to 230,000 last year

Wisconsin: Winter Wheat: 17.04 million bushels, compared to 8.625 million in 2020; average yield of 71 bushels per acre, compared to 71 a month ago and 69 a year ago; harvested area of 240,000 acres, compared to 125,000 last year

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