The USDA releases its first Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 2023 later this week.
University of Missouri livestock economist Scott Brown says the one thing he’s watching for in Thursday’s report is herd size. “The downside story for me is we get the report and it says we’ve grown inventories,” he says. “It’s not what I expect to get out of the report, but, if we talk about a bearish report along with the already lower hog prices, the world gets worse for pork producers.”
He tells Brownfield if the report signals contraction it could be good news, but he anticipates a lot of sideways movement. “No real contraction,” he says. “But not a lot of real growth, either. Which, to me, tends to be fairly neutral for these markets and we’ll continue to talk about some modest growth in pork production for much of 2023.”
Pre-report estimates from Allendale, an ag commodity analysis and brokerage firm, suggest modest growth and U.S.