Corn up Friday with soybeans, wheat mostly lower
Soybeans were mostly lower on spread trade and profit taking, finishing the week lower overall. Near-term forecasts have hot, dry weather in parts of the region against good rainfall in other areas. Ahead of next week’s USDA numbers, most analysts are expecting at least a fractional decline in the average yield projection. China and unknown each bought 132,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans. Traders bought the rumor Thursday, sold the fact on Friday. Those sales were despite diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, at least partially because Brazil’s soybean reserves are starting to tighten after strong demand earlier in their marketing year. Chinese soybean crush facilities are reportedly scaling back operations due to negative crush margins, which could impact sustained demand. U.S. soybean meal futures were down on profit taking and deliveries against the August contract, while bean oil was up on Friday’s strength in palm oil. The USDA’s attaché for Indonesia lowered its palm oil export outlook to 25.5 million tons due to increased sales restrictions and decreased global demand.
Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying but ended the week modestly lower. Corn is watching development weather ahead of the USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers out on the 12th. The USDA will probably lower yield, but that’s survey based, with objective field data not used until the September report. Corn is also monitoring the export pace out of Ukraine. There were another three Ukrainian ships loaded with corn authorized to leave port Friday. The shipments total for Ukraine through the Black Sea remains low but could pick up steam if Russia holds to its end of the agreement. France’s Ag Ministry pegs corn production at 12.36 million tons, down 19% on the year due to lower yields and harvested area. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 81% of Argentina’s corn crop is harvested.
The wheat complex was mostly lower with Chicago mixed on bear spreading and Kansas City and Minneapolis down on profit taking, with all three pits posting week-to-week losses. Export demand for U.S. wheat is slow and the trade’s watching harvest activity and weather in Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy says 40% of the winter grain harvest is complete, with the running total for wheat at 12.6 million tons. Hot, dry conditions in the northwestern U.S. Plains could have an impact on spring wheat yields. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is close to wrapping up in some areas. France’s Ag Ministry projects soft wheat production at 33.87 million tons, up 1 million from the last guess, but below the 2021 total of 35.43 million tons following a decline in planted area. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 17% of Argentina’s winter wheat crop is in good to excellent condition.