USDA winter wheat guess up on month, down on year

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USDA winter wheat guess up on month, down on year

The USDA says this year’s winter wheat crop will be smaller than last year, while spring wheat production should be larger.

Production is projected at 1.201 billion bushels, which is up 2% from June as harvest moves forward, but down 6% from 2021 due to lower average yield and acreage totals. The average yield is pegged at 48 bushels per acre, compared to 48.2 a month ago and 50.2 a year ago, with harvested area of 25.002 million acres, compared to 25.464 million last year.

Spring wheat production is seen at 502.92 million bushels, with a 14.4 bushel per acre increase in the expected average yield thanks to somewhat better weather in most of the northern U.S. Plains. This year’s average yield is projected at 47 bushels per acre, compared to 32.6 a year ago, with harvested area of 10.705 million acres, compared to 10.165 million in 2021.

The USDA’s next round of production estimates is out August 12th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Winter Wheat: 9.86 million bushels, compared to 8.41 million in 2021; Yield: 58 bushels per acre, compared to 57 a month ago and 58 a year ago; Harvested Area: 170,000 acres, compared to 145,000 last year

Illinois: Winter Wheat: 56.88 million bushels, compared to 48.19 million in 2021; Yield: Record 79 bushels per acre, compared to 78 a month ago and 79 a year ago; Harvested Area: 720,000 acres, compared to 610,000 last year

Indiana: Winter Wheat: 20.5 million bushels, compared to 22.95 million in 2021; Yield: 82 bushels per acre, compared to 78 a month ago and 85 a year ago; Harvested Area: 250,000 acres, compared to 270,000 last year

Kansas: Winter Wheat: 267.15 million bushels, compared to 364 million in 2021; Yield: 39 bushels per acre, compared to 39 a month ago and 52 a year ago; Harvested Area: 6.85 million acres, compared to 7 million last year

Michigan: Winter Wheat: 33.575 million bushels, compared to 45.36 million in 2021; Yield: 79 bushels per acre, compared to 79 a month ago and 81 a year ago; Harvested Area: 425,000 acres, compared to 560,000 last year

Minnesota: Spring Wheat: 61.48 million bushels, compared to 55.68 million in 2021; Yield: 53 bushels per acre, compared to 48 a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.16 million acres, unchanged from last year

Missouri: Winter Wheat: 41.58 million bushels, compared to 31.58 million in 2021; Yield: 63 bushels per acre, compared to 71 a month ago and 65 a year ago;
Harvested Area: 660,000 acres, compared to 490,000 last year

Nebraska: Winter Wheat: 31.82 million bushels, compared to 41.16 million in 2021; Yield: 37 bushels per acre, compared to 41 a month ago and 49 a year ago; Harvested Area: 860,000 acres, compared to 840,000 last year

Ohio: Winter Wheat: 46.48 million bushels, compared to 43.775 million in 2021; Yield: 76 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a month ago and 85 a year ago; Harvested Area: 480,000 acres, compared to 515,000 last year

South Dakota: Winter Wheat: 41.04 million bushels, compared to 27.36 million in 2021; Yield: 54 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a month ago and 38 a year ago; Harvested Area: 760,000 acres, compared to 720,000 last year; Spring Wheat: 35.77 million bushels, compared to 17.11 million in 2021; Yield: 49 bushels per acre, compared to 29 a year ago; Harvested Area: 730,000 acres, compared to 590,000 last year

Tennessee: Winter Wheat: 25.915 million bushels, compared to 23.43 million in 2021; Yield: 71 bushels per acre, compared to 73 a month ago and 71 a year ago; Harvested Area: 365,000 acres, compared to 330,000 last year

Wisconsin: Winter Wheat: 19.76 million bushels, compared to 18.375 million in 2021; Yield: 76 bushels per acre, compared to 73 a month ago and 75 a year ago; Harvested Area: 260,000 acres, compared to 245,000 last year

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