Soybeans, corn, wheat drop, watching weather

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Soybeans, corn, wheat drop, watching weather

Soybeans were sharply lower on fund and technical selling. Near-term forecasts have less heat, but there’s still not much of a chance of rain in many areas. The USDA says 94% of U.S. soybeans are planted, compared to the five-year average of 93%, with 83% emerged, compared to 84% on average, and 68% of the crop rated good to excellent, down 2% on the week. A new COVID breakout in China is leading to concerns of more lockdowns. Export inspections were down on the week, up on the year, with Mexico and Egypt claiming the top slots. China’s Ag Ministry is monitoring the impact of dry weather on summer planting in some key growing areas. China’s General Administration of Customs says shipments of soybeans from the U.S. in May were 1.73 million tons, up sharply on the year, with shipments from Brazil at 7.79 million tons, a drop of 1.44 million.

Corn was sharply lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is also watching the weather, with most forecasts showing dry conditions into at least early next month. As of Sunday, 95% of corn has emerged, matching the normal rate, and 70% of the crop is in good to excellent shape, 2% lower. Second crop harvest is advancing in Brazil, with yields generally below expectations. China says May corn imports from Ukraine were 126,727 tons, considerably smaller than a year ago due to Russia’s invasion, while purchasing 1.9 million tons, slightly above last year. Weekly corn inspections were below last week and last year, with China and Mexico leading the way.

The wheat complex was sharply lower on fund and technical selling. There’s been more talk of Russia opening an export corridor for Ukraine, but no action, with Russia staging more attacks over the weekend. There’s been minimal involvement by Ukraine in those discussions, with most of the talks between Russia and Turkey. Temporary grain storage is enroute to Ukraine, with grain piling up at ports due to slow exports and winter crop harvest occurring in areas not as heavily affected by Russia’s invasion. Germany is planning to allow shipping of grain from Ukraine via rail. Ukraine runs on a different rail gauge than the rest of Europe. Egypt says it imported 1.06 million tons of wheat from Russia from March to May, 84% above a year ago. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is ongoing and some spring wheat growing areas in the U.S. and Canada got rain over the weekend. For winter wheat, 91% of the crop is headed, compared to 95% on average, with 25% harvested, compared to 22% typically in late June, and 30% pf the crop rated good to excellent, a decline of 1%. For spring wheat, 98% of the crop is planted, compared to 100% usually this time of year, with 89% emerged, compared to 97% on average, and 59% of the crop rated good to excellent, a jump of 5%. Export inspections for U.S. wheat were under a week ago and a year ago, primarily to the Philippines and Thailand.