Higher finish for corn, soybeans, wheat
Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. Crush margins have narrowed, but remain in positive territory, and bean meal was higher. Near-term development weather does look mostly non-threatening with some rain in the forecast for parts of the region, but longer-term outlooks generally look drier, which could cause some stress. Soybean oil was down on spillover from palm oil. Export numbers were neutral to bearish, with increased competition from Brazil. Old crop sales were down on the week, China was the leading buyer, but with a significant cancellation by unknown destinations. New crop sales were better, continuing to further that record early pace, with China and unknown topping the list. China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center says their domestic crush volumes were down modestly on the week at 1.63 million tons due to poor margins and slow soybean meal demand.
Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying. The European forecast model has a hot, dry pattern in many areas through the end of the month, possibly impacting pollination. Domestic cash basis levels are solid due to slow farmer selling. Old crop export sales were a marketing year low after a big cancellation by unknown and new crop sales were even worse. Mexico was the leading buyer for both old and new crop corn. Exports are a question mark because of the slowdown in demand from China, they’ve possibly turned to corn from Russia, and an increasing availability of new crop corn from Brazil as their second crop harvest moves forward. Additionally, China has recently agreed to buy corn from Brazil.
The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying. Wheat is oversold, with traders watching winter wheat harvest activity and spring wheat development weather. The trade is also waiting to see what happens with talks regarding Russia allowing an export corridor for Ukraine. That’s extremely unlikely given the demands of Moscow, but some form of that corridor is still possible. Trade data shows a big jump in Egyptian purchases of Russian wheat between March and May. Weather is a concern in parts of Europe. Any significant upside is probably limited by slow export demand. The 2022/23 marketing year is off to a slow start, trailing the 2021/22 pace. Brazil was the biggest buyer last week, followed by Mexico, with a cancellation by unknown.