Soybeans fall as corn, wheat finish mixed
Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. The outside markets were mostly bearish, soybean products were, and the trade was getting ready for the first condition rating of the season. The USDA says 88% of soybeans are planted, matching the five-year average, and 70% has emerged, compared to 74% on average, with 70% of the crop rated good to excellent, 8% above the first rating for the 2021 crop. Most forecasts show good conditions in the Midwest and Plains for the tail end of planting, but if a possible heat dome settles in across the region, it could cause some damage. Demand from China is a concern with more COVID cases reported in some major cities. China’s National Grain Trade Center says 55,001 tons of soybeans were sold from state reserves last Friday, about 11% of the offered supply, and above the prior week’s total. U.S. soybean export inspections were up on the week and the year, with Mexico and Japan leading the way. The losses in soybean products came despite bullish crush margins and supportive fundamental outlooks.
Corn was mixed. Near-term forecasts have high temperatures in most of the Corn Belt, which should help with development in areas that have fallen short on growing degree days. However, if those conditions persist, it could cause some damage. As of Sunday, 97% of U.S. corn has been planted, in-line with the normal pace, and 88% has emerged, compared to 89% on average, with 72% called good to excellent, 1% less than last week. Corn in southern Brazil might have seen some frost/freeze damage over the weekend, but that will take some time to assess with second crop harvest ongoing. AgRural says 7% of that critical second crop in Brazil has been harvested. Export inspections were below last week and last year, primarily to China and Mexico. The USDA’s quarterly grain stocks and planted area totals are out on the 30th, while the next set of supply and demand estimates are scheduled for July 12th.
The wheat complex was mixed. Russia intensified attacks in parts of Ukraine over the weekend, throwing that already questionable proposed export corridor even further into doubt. The grain that is leaving Ukraine, mostly traveling through Poland and Romania, has been somewhat slowed down by transportation logistics issues, including differing railroad gauges. An official from Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says total production is expected to be 48.5 million tons, significantly below the 2021 total, with wheat production at 17 million to 20 million tons. Planting in Russia is reportedly almost wrapped up for the season. The trade continues to also monitor the U.S. winter wheat harvest and global crop conditions, including hot temperatures parts of Europe. Stateside, for winter wheat, 86% of the crop has headed, compared to 90% normally in mid-June, and 10% is harvested, compared to 12% on average, with 31% in good to excellent condition, 1% higher. For spring wheat, 94% has been planted, compared to 99% most years, and 72% has emerged, compared to the five-year average of 93%, with 54% reported as good to excellent, 17% above the first rating last year. Forecasts have rain in some dry spring wheat growing areas of Canada. Weekly wheat inspections were up from a week ago, but down from a year ago, with Mexico and Japan topping the list of recipients.