Most higher finish for grains and oilseeds
Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. The tight supply and solid demand continue to be the big bullish factors, with help from a higher move in bean oil. That was on spillover from crude oil along with the generally bullish global supply and demand outlook for vegetable oils. Ukraine is normally the world’s biggest exporter of sunflower oil but remains mostly locked out of the market by Russia’s invasion. Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture says it will raise its export tax on sunflower oil. Soybean meal finished lower on profit taking and product spread adjustments. CONAB raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to 124.268 million tons with the new USDA projection out Friday at Noon Eastern/11 Central. ANEC sees Brazil’s June soybean exports at 9.41 million tons. Morocco has removed duties on sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed imports. The International Grains Council expects 2022/223 global soybean production to be 387 million tons, up 4 million from the previous guess. Stateside, the trade is keeping an eye on weather forecasts for next week, which show a warmer, drier pattern for a big chunk of the region. That should help planting wrap up in some areas but could inhibit early development.
Corn was mixed, mostly higher. Corn consolidated, also looking at the fundamentals along with some overnight storm damage in parts of the Midwest. With U.S. planting statistically nearly wrapped up, the trade is monitoring development conditions, with some forecasts showing a warmer, drier pattern in much of the Midwest next week. CONAB increased its outlook for Brazil’s second corn crop to 88.016 million tons, with harvest just getting underway in some areas. ANEC is projecting Brazil’s corn exports for June at 1.45 million tons. The International Grains Council pegs 2022/23 world corn production at 1.184 billion tons, a decrease of 13 million on the month. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 1.039 million barrels a day down 32,000 on the week and 28,000 on the year, with stocks at 23.636 million barrels, up 675,000 from the previous week and 3.676 million above a year ago. The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is also a supportive background factor for corn as it boosts global demand for U.S. supplies.
The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying. There have been formal discussions with Turkey about Russia opening an export corridor for Ukraine. The odds of that actually happening seem to be fairly low because Russia is asking for the removal of sanctions and for Ukraine to clear mines from the Black Sea. Ukraine has actually had little to no involvement with much of the process. Turkey is a member of the European Union and NATO but is also a tacit ally of Russia. The International Grains Council expects 2022/23 world wheat production to be 769 million tons, a decrease of 11 million from May. China is reportedly purchasing new crop domestic wheat for 30% higher than minimum price in an effort to encourage more production as Beijing refills reserves. 55% of China’s domestic crop has been harvested. France’s AgriMer reports a year-to-year decline in soft wheat planted area because of drought in some key growing areas. India’s government says it will allow exports of 500,000 tons of previously purchased wheat, the second release since a ban was put in place last month. Argentina’s government says 2021/22 wheat exports were record large.