Soybeans give back gains, corn and wheat mostly lower
Soybeans were sharply lower on profit taking and technical selling, cementing the lower weekly close. Old crop exports were a marketing year low, but that’s partially a function of tight supplies, while new crop sales were unspectacular. China was a net cancellation on old crop and unknown destinations led the way for new crop. The fundamental outlook for soybeans and products remains bullish. Still, soybean meal followed beans lower and bean oil was mostly lower on spread trade and profit taking, despite another higher move in crude oil. Beans continue to watch U.S. planting and development weather, with the next set of USDA supply, demand, and production numbers out on the 10th at Noon Eastern/11 Central. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentina’s soybean crop at 43.3 million tons, up 1.3 million from the prior projection.
Corn was mostly lower on spread trade and profit taking, while finishing the week sharply lower. Development conditions look good for most of the region and parts of the northern Midwest are expected to see a drier pattern, potentially allowing some producers to finish planting or come close to it. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition numbers are out Monday afternoon. Unknown bought 101,600 tons of old crop U.S. corn. That could turn out to be a variety of destinations, but the big question is whether or not it’s China. Beijing has been purchasing corn from the U.S. due to a lack of supplies from Ukraine, but also recently signed a deal with Brazil to facilitate trade in GMO corn. Weekly old crop sales were smaller than average, with a modest amount purchased by China, while new crop sales failed to break 50,000 tons. Second crop corn harvest is underway in parts of Brazil. France’s AgriMer says 91% of France’s corn crop is in good to excellent condition, unchanged on the week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 32% of Argentina’s corn crop has been harvested.
The wheat complex was mostly lower, with profit taking dominating the session as contracts generally resumed the bearish pattern and posted significant weekly losses. Old crop export numbers for wheat were bearish and new crop business has been inconsistent. The 2022/23 marketing year for wheat got underway June 1st. The trade continues to monitor talks on an export corridor for Ukraine. Whether or not anything will get done probably rests on the believability of Russia for NATO. Russia says it will ensure an export corridor for Ukraine if some sanctions are removed. SovEcon estimates Russia’s new crop wheat exports at 42.3 million tons, which would be record large, but that depends on Moscow returning to a normal sales scheme after restricting sales this year and likely includes some of the Ukrainian grain at Black Sea ports held by Russia. France’s AgriMer says 67% of that nation’s soft wheat crop is in good to excellent shape, 2% less than the previous week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 13.9% of Argentina’s wheat crop has been planted. Planting is reportedly close to complete in Australia.