Fertilizer prices will come down soon, but how much?


Fertilizer prices will come down soon, but how much?

Some fertilizer experts expect prices to mellow soon, but the question is how much?

Josh Linville, Director of Fertilizer with StoneX tells Brownfield he expects fertilizer prices to come back down in late spring.

“We will see a reset. Prices will come down in the summer. We are not going to stay where we are at today- it is not sustainable. But, I don’t think we will see the values we saw a couple of summers ago in 2020.”

But he says how much will strongly depend on the amount of corn acres US farmers plant this year.

“If we get to April 1st expecting 91 million acres of corn and that jumps to something crazy like 94-95 million, all of a sudden that is new demand just before spring that we didn’t plan on and that is a whole different situation.”

And he is also watching trade very closely.

“China’s government has put an export block on everything nitrogen and phosphate that is supposed to go through June 2022. Well, if they pull that off early there’s more tons we didn’t expect, but if they expand that out to December for example, now we have lost a lot of tons. If Russia invades the Ukraine and this administration steps up and says ‘we are going to shut your economy down, we aren’t letting imports and exports go’, Russia is a major exporter of nitrogen, phosphate and potash -so if you remove them from the world scale, that is a big deal.”

Brownfield interviewed Linville at the 2022 Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association Convention in Peoria.

Interview with Josh Linville