USDA FAS cuts Brazil soybean estimate
The USDA’s Foreign Ag Service has lowered its outlook for Brazil’s soybean crop.
The FAS now projects production at 136 million tons, 3 million less than the official estimate and 4.5 million below the most recent guess from the Brazil’s equivalent of the USDA, CONAB. 2020/21 production totaled 137 million tons according to the FAS and 138 million tons per official USDA records.
The reductions are due to hot, dry weather in southern growing areas and excessive rainfall in parts of northern and central Brazil.
The FAS also reduced its 2021/22 export outlook to 88 million tons on that smaller crop and lowered its crush outlook for Brazil to 46 million due to a cut in the biodiesel blending mandate. Those would both be 500,000 tons below 2020/21 levels.
The FAS expects Brazil’s domestic soybean supply to remain tight because of strong export demand from China, but further reductions in Brazil’s crop size could mean increased demand for U.S. beans.
The USDA’s next update for Brazilian production is out February 9th, with the updated outlook for CONAB on February 10th.