NASA: climate change will have widespread crop yield variability by 2030
A NASA study finds climate change could have an opposite impact on corn and wheat yields by the end of the decade.
Climate Scientist Jonas Jägermeyr tells Brownfield their research projects corn yields will drop more than 25% while wheat yields could grow about 17 percent. “The level to which current agriculture faces a new climate reality is so widespread, targeted adaptation, implementation really becomes paramount in the coming years.”
He says the study used crop and climate modeling under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and found the change in yields is because of increases in temperature and carbon dioxide levels and rainfall pattern shifts.
As an example, he says “A shifted precipitation pattern will lead to winners on one end and losers on the other end – higher frequent and more severe drought will have great losses and then higher precipitation in some areas will potentially lead to gains.
He said the changes would make it more difficult to grow corn in the tropics, but it could expand wheat’s growing range, which exacerbates global inequality issues. “The losses that are simulated among these regions will directly affect livelihoods and food security in these communities that already disproportionally already affected.”
He says another impact would be global trading as wheat can be a substitute for corn.