Corn, winter wheat give back some gains
Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. Harvest is slower than average nationally after last week’s rain and there was spillover from a higher move in soybean meal. Soybean oil ended the session mixed, mostly weak, on spread trade and profit taking. StoneX projects the 2021 U.S. soybean crop at 4.49 billion bushels with an average yield of 51.9 bushels per acre, up from the firm’s prior projections. The trade is watching planting and development conditions in South America. Most forecasts have welcome near-term rain for both Argentina and Brazil. The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out November 9th, with CONAB’s updated projection for Brazil out on the 11th. For now, the U.S. still has the price advantage on the export market, but demand from China remains slower than expected.
Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn is also monitoring U.S harvest activity, just ahead of the normal pace as of Sunday, and the weather in Argentina and Brazil. Parts of the eastern Midwest are too wet to harvest, while conditions in South America are generally favorable. South America is more of a long-term question because of the impending La Nina weather pattern. StoneX sees U.S. corn production this year at 15.119 billion bushels with an average yield of 177.7 bushels per acre, above the firm’s October guesses. Improved corn for ethanol demand and margins did limit losses, but the trade is also concerned about slower than anticipated export demand. U.S. prices are the most competitive on the export market and substantially less expensive than China’s domestic prices. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Wednesday.
The wheat complex was mostly lower. Chicago and Kansas City were overbought after the recent move to new highs, so traders took profits while watching winter wheat planting and emergence. Planting is 1% ahead of the five-year average and emergence is 1% behind, while 45% of the crop is called good to excellent, down 1% on the week, but above a year ago. Minneapolis was mostly firm as the global supply is getting tighter, but export demand remains relatively slow. The primary impetus for the market continues to be those tightening global supplies and rising prices, including the recent price strength in Russia and Moscow’s export tariff. The trade is also watching planting conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, along with development conditions in Argentina and Australia. Egypt bought 180,000 tons of wheat from Russia.