Corn up solidly, soybeans and wheat rally
Soybeans finished modestly higher on commercial and technical buying, closing near the middle of the day’s wide range. The trade continues to focus the supply and demand fundamentals, including more talk of China buying U.S. beans. The USDA’s weekly export sales numbers are out Thursday morning at 8:30 Eastern/7:30 Central. Most forecasts have near-term harvest delays in some areas ahead of a drier, but cooler, weather pattern. This week’s rainfall could cause some disease issues in already wet portions of the eastern Midwest. Planting conditions in Argentina and Brazil generally look favorable, with record production potential for both nations. Still, if the La Nina pattern surfaces as expected, it would likely trim yields. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on product spread adjustments. Bean oil had additional pressure from palm oil following a slow set of export sales numbers from Malaysia and a lower move in crude oil.
Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying, recovering from a lower open and breaking overhead resistance. Fuel and feed demand are solid and export demand continues to be good, even with China’s conspicuous absence over the past several weeks. Corn is also watching the U.S. harvest pace and planting conditions in South America ahead of the full emergence of La Nina. Last week’s average daily ethanol production was the second highest on record at 1.016 million barrels. That’s only 2,000 below the record set in early December 2017 and up 10,000 on the week and 165,000 on the year. Stocks of 19.925 million barrels were 155,000 less the previous week, but 324,000 more than a year ago. Ethanol futures were unchanged.
The wheat complex was firm to higher on commercial and technical buying. Overall, it was an up and down day in Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis, but the supply and demand fundamentals were enough to pull contracts into the black by the close. Rain will be welcome in hard red winter growing areas but could cause issues for parts of the soft red winter region. The USDA’s attaché in Argentina projects 2021/22 wheat production at a record 20 million tons, compared to the 2020/21 total of 17.645 million, with exports projected at 13.5 million tons, compared to 11 million last marketing year. Brazil is the biggest buyer of Argentine wheat. The trade is also watching planting conditions in Russia, along with their domestic prices and export tax rate. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out November 9th. DTN says Egypt bought 360,000 tons of wheat, 180,000 tons from Russia, 120,000 tons from Ukraine, and 60,000 from Romania. Cairo passed on all offers for last week’s tender, citing high prices.