December Minneapolis wheat above $10
Soybeans were modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling but managing a modestly higher week-to-week finish. Beans continued to follow global vegetable oils, while watching the harvest pace in the U.S. and planting activity in Argentina and Brazil ahead of the full onset of La Nina. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out November 9th. CONAB’s second production projection of the season for Brazil is set for November 11th. There was more talk of China buying U.S. beans during the week, but no announced sales. U.S. soybeans are the most attractively priced on the global market. Soybean oil was down modestly relative to recent gains on profit taking and a lower move in palm oil and canola, while soybean meal was up on product spread adjustments.
Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying, ending the week with double digit gains. Most forecasts have rain related harvest delays in parts of the Midwest in the coming week, including chances for severe storms in some areas. That coverage is expected to include some already wetter than normal portions of the eastern Midwest. Export and ethanol demand are both showing signs of improvement. Part of the improvement for exports has been the gradual resumption of export activities out of the Louisiana Gulf following damage from Hurricane Ida. Support this week also came from assurances that Mexico will continue to buy U.S. corn. Corn is also watching planting conditions in Argentina and Brazil. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 55% of Argentina’s crop is planted. Strategie Grains pegs European Union corn production at 67.5 million tons, up 2.6 million from the last guess. France’s Ag Ministry says that nation’s corn harvest continues to be slowed by rain, now at 32% complete, compared to 75% a year ago. Ethanol futures were unchanged.
The wheat complex was sharply higher on commercial and technical buying, with December Minneapolis closing above the $10 per bushel mark. Global supplies are getting tighter, pushing U.S. and world prices higher, with December contracts in Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis all posting strong gains for the week. Minneapolis remained in the lead following the smaller than expected drought-stricken spring wheat crops in the U.S. and Canada. Long-term forecasts have dry weather in the southern U.S. Plains, consistent with a La Nina pattern. The trade is monitoring development weather in Argentina and Australia, along with planting conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Consulting firm IKAR sees Russia’s wheat crop at 75.3 million tons, compared to the USDA’s September guess of 72.5 million. Russia’s wheat export tax is moving higher as Moscow attempts to limit domestic price inflation. DTN says Jordan is tendering for 120,000 tons of milling wheat.