Soybeans, corn diverge ahead of USDA reports

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Soybeans, corn diverge ahead of USDA reports

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. The trade was getting ready for the USDA’s supply, demand, and production numbers out Tuesday at Noon Eastern/11 Central. Ahead of those reports, the average estimate for soybean production is 4.409 billion bushels with an average yield of 51.1 bushels per acre. New crop U.S. ending stocks are seen at 289 million bushels, with old crop world at 96.4 million tons and new crop world at 101 million tons. Harvest delays are ongoing in some areas, with the USDA’s weekly crop progress update due Tuesday at 4 Eastern/3 Central. The USDA’s export inspections report was also delayed until Tuesday. Cargill reportedly loaded a bulk U.S. soybean cargo on the Texas Gulf Coast, with operations on the Louisiana port of the Gulf still hampered by damage from Hurricane Ida. The USDA’s attaché in Malaysia estimates 2021/22 crude palm oil production at 18.2 million tons, 1.5 million less than the official USDA guess due to a lack of available labor caused by COVID-19 restrictions. Exports are expected to be 16.5 million tons, compared to the official projection of 17.22 million tons and the attaché’s 2020/21 total of 15.5 million. 10% of Brazil’s soybean crop has reportedly been planted. Soybean oil futures were lower, following world vegetable oils, with meal down following beans and oil.

Corn was modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Corn was also preparing for the USDA’s monthly and weekly numbers out Tuesday, while monitoring U.S. harvest delays and planting conditions in South America. Brazil has received generally good rainfall early in the planting season, while parts of Argentina need more precipitation. The USDA’s attaché in Brazil projects 2021/22 corn production at 118 million tons, compared to the 2020/21 total of 85 million, which was hit hard by weather issues. Exports are expected to be 43 million tons, compared to 19 million last marketing year. Ahead of Tuesday’s USDA numbers, on average, the U.S. crop is projected at 14.948 billion bushels with an average yield of 175.9 bushels per acre. New crop U.S. stocks are expected to be 1.421 billion bushels, with old crop world supplies at 287.4 million tons and new crop at 298.4 million. Harvest activity in parts of northern China has been delayed by rain, leading to quality concerns. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Thursday.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago adjusting spreads and Kansas City and Minneapolis down modestly. Rain is in the forecast for much of the U.S. hard and red winter region, mostly aiding development. White winter growing areas in the northern and northwestern U.S. Plains are still short of moisture, which will likely limit planted areas. Global winter wheat conditions are generally good, but parts of Argentina and Russia need rain. Sov Econ estimates Russia’s crop at 78.5 million tons, compared to the USDA’s September guess of 75.5 million. Most of the spotlight for wheat will fall on the global projection adjustments. Old crop world stocks are expected to be 291.5 million tons with new crop at 280.9 million, while U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 581 million bushels. The USDA’s attaché for Brazil estimates 2021/22 wheat production at a record 7.8 million tons, compared to the official projection of 6.7 million tons and the post’s 2020/21 total of 6.25 million. Imports this marketing year are expected to be 6.5 million tons, compared to 6.4 million last marketing year. Export demand for U.S. wheat continues to be slower than expected, with the USDA’s weekly numbers pushed back to Friday morning.

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