Soybeans, corn down Friday, lower on week
Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling, pulling the most active months lower for the week. The trade is keeping an eye on weather, including probable harvest delays in the coming week. Beans are also watching the early planting paces in Argentina and Brazil. Brazil has generally received good rainfall, while much of Argentina is expected to remain dry into mid-month, except for a rain event midweek next week. Beans were up early following global vegetable oils but turned lower on a down move for bean oil. Ahead of Tuesday’s production update, analysts expect soybeans to be estimated at 4.415 billion bushels with an average yield of 51.1 bushels per acre, with new crop ending stocks seen at 300 million bushels. All of those would be above the September projections. Global ending stocks are also expected to be up on the month. Weekly export inspections numbers are also out Tuesday. Soybean meal was down on demand uncertainties.
Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling, ending the week lower. Corn is also watching harvest weather, expecting a mixed week of progress in the USDA’s weekly numbers Tuesday afternoon. Commodity markets and most USDA offices are closed Monday, October 11th. Also out on Tuesday is the updated USDA production report. The average guess for corn is 14.973 billion bushels with an average yield of 176 bushels per acre, slightly less than last month, with 2021/22 ending stocks projected at 1.432 billion bushels, up from a month ago. The USDA is also expected to increase the global supply outlook. Harvest activity is underway in China and planting is ongoing in South America. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 21% of Argentina’s corn crop is planted and CONAB reports 24% of Brazil’s first crop is planted. France’s Ag Ministry says harvest is just 7% complete, compared to 47% on average, due to heavy rainfall. Ethanol futures were unchanged.
The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago and Kansas City down and Minneapolis mostly firm. Wheat continues to monitor U.S. winter wheat planting, in addition to global development conditions. Stateside, planting delays are probable in the coming week, while globally, winter wheat planting is ongoing in the Black Sea region, 44% of Argentina’s winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent, lower than a week ago because of dry weather, and conditions in Australia look good for the most part. Chicago and Kansas City were also down for the week, while Minneapolis was up. Any potential adjustments will come in the new USDA supply and demand numbers, also out Tuesday. The reports are scheduled for Noon Eastern/11 Central. The average estimate for 2021/22 U.S. wheat ending stocks is 576 million bushels, compared to 615 million in September. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be 280.82 million tons, compared to 283.22 million a month ago. Russian exporters are reportedly continuing their efforts to move wheat out ahead of an export tariff going into effect in February. DTN says Japan bought 130,963 tons of food wheat from the U.S., Australia, and Canada and Taiwan picked up 48,000 tons of U.S. milling wheat, while the Philippines purchased 56,000 tons of wheat. Jordan is tendering for 120,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat.