Corn, soybeans see more harvest pressure
Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. Harvest is ongoing, with generally good progress expected in many areas, while parts of the region will see minor delays. Soybean oil also gave back some recent gains, following the lead of the energy sector, but bean meal was up on an oversold bounce. Palm oil did gain ahead of the U.S. session on strong demand from China, with some soybean crush plants still closed due to energy rationing. There’s also continued strong global demand for canola following lower than anticipated production by Canada. Planting is underway in parts of South America, with the trade waiting to see when the anticipated La Nina pattern fully starts to take effect. That’s expected to trim yields at least somewhat. CONAB’s first new crop estimate of the season for Brazil is out Thursday. The USDA’s weekly export sales report is also out Thursday.
Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is also watching harvest activity and anecdotal yield numbers ahead of next week’s USDA crop production report. Pre-report projections are mixed, but generally point to lower yield and production numbers for corn. Rain forecasts are mixed for South America, favoring Brazil over Argentina. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 978,000 barrels a day, up 64,000 on the week and 55,000 on the year, while stocks were the tightest since May at 19.931 million barrels, a decrease of 289,000 from the week before, but an increase of 259,000 from a year ago. The USDA’s attaché in China estimates 2021/22 corn imports at 20 million tons, compared to their guess of 30 million for 2020/21, larges due to changes in feed structure. The new marketing year for China started October 1st.
The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying, shrugging off higher trade in the dollar during the session. The trade is monitoring U.S. winter wheat planting, which could wrap up soon in some areas. The slower than expected export demand for U.S. wheat capped gains in Chicago and Kansas City. The demand outlook for Minneapolis is stronger, which helped it outgain its winter wheat cousins. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry lowered its wheat production outlook by 450,000 tons to 32 million, while Russia’s Ag Ministry now sees total grain exports at 45 million to 48 million tons, compared to an initial expectation of 51 million. India’s wheat exports are expected to be up modestly on the year thanks to a bigger crop. Crop conditions generally look favorable for Australia and parts of Argentina’s wheat region need more rain. DTN says Egypt is tendering for an unspecified amount of wheat, while Pakistan is in the market for 90,000 tons. The USDA’s attaché for China sees 2021/22 wheat imports at 8 million tons, compared to 10.617 million for 2020/21.