Harvest pressure resumes for corn, soybeans
Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling, in addition to spillover from the outside markets. The U.S. harvest is slightly ahead of average, with limited rain delays in the near-term forecast. Yields in some areas have been lower than expected, but it is early. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out October 12th. The trade is also monitoring conditions in Argentina and Brazil as planting gets into full swing. If it comes to fruition, the expected La Nina pattern would reduce yield prospects in South America. There’s been more talk of China buying U.S. soybeans, with U.S. supplies now holding a global price advantage into early next year. Some crush plants remain idled in China to conserve energy. Soybean meal was steady to lower and bean oil was down, both following beans and the broader market. The losses in bean oil came despite gains in Malaysian palm oil futures.
Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, along with broader market pressure. Corn is also watching harvest activity, while monitoring yield numbers and some reports of disease damage. China’s government has lowered its new crop corn import estimate. The National Grain and Oils Information Center has imports at 20 million tons, compared to 29 million last marketing year, and below the USDA’s most recent guess of 26 million tons. The government body indicates an increase in sorghum imports and greater wheat and rice use for livestock feeding. Planting conditions are generally good in Brazil, while parts of Argentina need more rain. Mexico bought 150,000 tons of 2021/22 U.S. corn. DTN says a Taiwanese feed mill picked 65,000 tons of feed corn from either Argentina or Brazil. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and supply numbers are out Wednesday.
The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, picking up pressure from the outside markets, especially the dollar. Much-needed rain is in the forecast for some of the drier hard red winter growing areas, but that will likely miss white winter wheat growing areas in the northwestern U.S. Plains. Soft red winter planting conditions are generally good. The USDA is expected to lower spring wheat production and harvested area numbers Thursday, while ramping up the abandoned acreage total. Ahead of the numbers, the average guess is for a crop of 327 million tons, compared to the August estimate of 343 million. The report is out at Noon Eastern/11 Central. The rainfall pattern in Australia is expected to improve, boosting production prospects, while wheat growing areas in Argentina generally remain dry and portions of Russia could use some rain. DTN says Pakistan bought 575,000 tons of optional origin wheat and Algeria is tendering for 50,000 tons of optional origin wheat.