Soybeans, wheat mixed Friday, but up on week
Soybeans were narrowly mixed, with the most active months closing firm for the week. Beans consolidated Friday, watching harvest activity, with only scattered rain in the forecast for most areas into early October. China has reportedly shutdown some crush plants to conserve electricity, with no announced timeline for reopening. The trade is also watching early planting activity in South America with most waiting for the rainy season and uncertainties about yield due to the anticipated La Nina pattern. The International Grains Council estimates 2021/22 world soybean production at 380 million tons, unchanged on the month but well above the 2020/21 projection of 362 million tons, also leaving trade, consumption, and carryover steady with August. South American soybean meal is reportedly commanding a record premium to U.S. prices due to slow farmer selling, strong demand from India, and the continued issues shipping out of the Gulf following Hurricane Ida. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher, on product spread adjustments.
Corn was mixed, mostly modestly lower, finishing the week narrowly mixed. Corn continues to watch harvest activity, expecting the USDA to report good progress in most of the region Monday afternoon. The trade was also waiting to see the USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed and Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports for indications on future livestock feed demand. 20% of Brazil’s first crop has been planted and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says planting in Argentina is 8.5% complete. The International Grains Council sees 2021/22 global corn production at 1.209 billion tons, compared to 1.202 billion a month ago and 1.127 billion last marketing year. Carryover was boosted by 12 million tons on the month to 282 million, while trade and consumption were unchanged. The USDA’s next set of domestic and global supply, demand, and production numbers is out October 12th. Ethanol futures were unchanged.
The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago and Minneapolis up and Kansas City down. Parts of the hard red winter and white winter regions are expected to receive some much-needed rain early in the coming week. The December contracts at all three pits did post week-to-week gains. The USDA’s Small Grains Summary is out on the 30th, along with Quarterly Grain Stocks. Rain is also in the forecast for dry parts of Argentina and Russia, and the trade is watching conditions in Ukraine and Australia. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 66.8% of Argentina’s wheat crop has adequate to optimal soil moisture and 50% is rated good to excellent. The International Grains Council pegs 2021/22 world wheat production at 781 million tons, compared to 782 million in August and 773 million for 2020/21. The IGC trade guess was slightly higher, consumption held steady, and carryover was down modestly. DTN says Taiwan bought 49,580 tons of U.S. milling wheat, while Algeria picked up 300,000 to 500,000 tons of durum from Canada and Mexico and Pakistan purchased 575,000 tons of wheat.