Soybeans, corn up modestly, watching harvest progress

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Soybeans, corn up modestly, watching harvest progress

Soybeans were modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Harvest progress has been good, aside from delays in some eastern areas. Conditions over the next week or so generally look better for activity. Export sales were down on the week, but about two thirds of the total was to China. It’s still early in the marketing year, but 2021/22 shipments are behind 2020/21. That’s partially due to shipping issues out of the Gulf following Hurricane Ida. China has been rumored as buying U.S. beans this week, but nothing has surfaced. While Beijing did buy a lot of beans from Brazil in August, their exportable supply is essentially exhausted. Planting is underway in parts of Argentina and Brazil with the possibility of lower yields due to an anticipated La Nina event. The USDA’s next round of global, and U.S., production projections is out in the supply and demand report October 12th. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher, adjusting product spreads. Bean oil also saw support from the recent grains in global vegetables.

Corn was modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Corn is also watching harvest activity, expecting the USDA to report generally good progress in next week’s update. Export numbers continue to be impacted by those issues at the Gulf. Sales were down on the week, with Canada and Mexico topping the list. There were routine purchases last week by China and unknown destinations. Thursday morning, Guatemala bought 138,403 tons of 2021/22 U.S. corn. The trade is also waiting to see what happens in the USDA’s quarterly grain stocks numbers out at the end of the month. The USDA’s attaché in Mexico estimates domestic 2020/21 production at 27.2 million tons, up 200,000 from the official guess thanks to higher-than-expected planted area and projects the 2021/22 crop at 28 million tons. 2021/22 imports are seen at 17 million tons, compared to 16.5 million last marketing year. Corn is also watching planting conditions in Argentina and Brazil. Ethanol futures were unchanged.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying, along with the lower dollar. Export sales are slower than some have been expecting, but the world supply of exportable wheat has gotten tighter, which could boost U.S. sales. The weekly sales were down 42% from the previous week’s marketing year higher, with the Philippines and Mexico leading the buyers. Winter wheat planting is ongoing and parts of the Plains will need more rain, especially in white winter growing areas in the northwestern U.S. Plains. Conditions in Australia and seen as non-threatening and there is rain in the forecast for parts of Russia and Europe has generally adequate soil moisture for winter wheat planting, while many wheat growing areas in Argentina need precipitation. The strength in oats also continued to buoy wheat, with December notching a contract high on supply concerns. The USDA’s attaché in Mexico has 2021/22 domestic wheat production at 3.2 million tons, compared to the official estimate of 3.1 million and the 2020/21 total of 2.965 million tons. Imports this marketing year are pegged at 5.1 million tons, compared to 4.724 million the previous marketing year. DTN says importers in the Philippines bought 112,000 tons of feed wheat and Pakistan is tendering for 640,000 tons of wheat.