Soybeans bounce back
Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. It was an up and down day with beans oversold after Monday’s broader market driven drop. There was talk during the session, but no confirmation, of China buying U.S. beans. China had been relying on Brazil recently, but they’ve nearly exhausted their supply. China is officially on a holiday until Wednesday, but that would be an indicator of their strong demand. Early U.S. harvest activity is ongoing, with many areas expected to make solid progress this week, while planting is starting in South America ahead of the widespread rainy season. Soybean meal and oil were higher on an oversold bounce. The USDA’s attaché in India says that nation’s Ministry of Commerce has extended its date for soybean meal made from GMO bean and has approved additional ports for those imports.
Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Corn followed through on Monday, with 10% of the U.S. crop harvested, a little bit faster than average with mixed yield results, and there is rain in the forecast for Brazil. Still, Brazil, and Argentina, will need to see sustained rainfall to make up for last season’s shortfall in production. Some forecasts do have a delayed rainy season for central Brazil and there is the likelihood of a La Nina event this growing season. Export operations at the Louisiana Gulf continue to slowly come back online following Hurricane Ida. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and supply numbers are out Wednesday. France’s Agri Mer says 89% of that nation’s corn crop is rated good to excellent, with harvest about to get underway. The USDA’s attaché in Japan estimates 2020/21 corn imports at 15.5 million tons, 2.4% less than 2019/20, with 2021/22 projected at 15.7 million tons.
The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Winter wheat planting is slightly ahead of normal, with scattered rain in the forecast for the Midwest and Plains. Parts of the hard red winter and white winter regions will need significantly more precipitation. The USDA’s small grains summary report is out on the 30th, along with quarterly grain stocks, and the next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is scheduled for October 12th. Rain is also in the forecast for winter wheat growing areas of Russia and Ukraine. Recent dry conditions in parts of Australia have likely trimmed yield potential. DTN says Japan is tendering for 113,067 tons of food wheat from the U.S. and Canada. The USDA’s attaché for Japan sees 2020/21 wheat imports at 5.493 million tons, compared to 5.682 million in 2019/20, with 2021/22 pegged at 5.4 million tons, a little less than the current USDA guess of 5.7 million tons.