Soybeans, corn mixed, watching weather, harvest

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Soybeans, corn mixed, watching weather, harvest

Soybeans were mostly modestly higher on spread trade and oversold signals. Late development is faster than average and harvest is underway in some southern U.S. growing areas. China bought 106,000 tons of U.S. beans, pushing the monthly announced total to 362,000 tons. The USDA’s weekly export numbers are out Friday morning. The USDA’s attaché in China estimates 2021/22 soybean imports at a record large 101 million tons, up 3% from 2020/21 due to an increase in soybean meal demand and a smaller domestic crop. China’s domestic production is seen at 19 million tons, compared to 19.6 million tons, with some producers switching to corn because of high prices. The attaché for India has domestic 2021/22 production at 10.8 million tons, down from the previous guess of 11.2 million tons due to inconsistent weather. India is a net exporter of soybean meal. Soybean meal was mixed, adjusting spreads, and bean oil was weak on commercial selling. Statistics Canada reports canola stocks at the end of July were 1.767 million tons, above pre-report estimates, but well below the year ago total of 3.435 million tons.

Corn was mixed, mostly weak. Corn consolidated near the recent lows, monitoring late development conditions and early harvest activity. The crop needs a trend line yield or better to meet demand. This next set of estimates will be based on objective yield data and will include updated acreage numbers. Corn is watching the late old second crop corn harvest in Brazil, along with new first crop planting, in addition to planting conditions in Argentina. La Nina is a concern for producers in South America, possibly cutting yields. The USDA’s new supply, demand, and production numbers are out Friday at Noon Eastern/11 Central. The trade is also watching the continued slowdown of export movement out of southern Louisiana following damage and power outages following Hurricane Ida. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Thursday.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. The U.S. spring wheat harvest is nearly over, while winter wheat planting is just getting underway. The USDA’s small grains production summary is out at the end of the month. Parts of the northwestern and southern U.S. Plains will need more rain during these early stages to ensure a good crop. Statistics Canada says all wheat stocks on July 31st were 5.705 million tons, larger than expected and up 3.7% on the year. The next production estimate for Canada is out September 14th. Wheat producers in India are reportedly disappointed the government’s domestic purchase price was raised by 2%, citing a faster rise for input costs. The trade is also watching harvest activity in Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and Europe, along with development conditions in Argentina. DTN says Egypt bought 240,000 tons of wheat from Ukraine and 60,000 tons from Russia, adding there are several new tenders for feed wheat: 112,000 tons from the Philippines, 80,000 tons from Japan, and 65,000 tons from South Korea.