Soybeans bounce, corn, wheat mostly higher
Soybeans were modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Beans are oversold, continuing to assess this week’s rainfall with more in the forecast for some areas in the next couple of days. Beans will need a trend line yield or better to meet demand expectations and limit further price inflation for end users. New crop export sales were strong, with China taking the top spot, and China bought another 126,000 tons of new U.S. beans ahead of Thursday’s open. The new marketing year for soybeans started September 1st. The Netherlands was the top old crop buyer, mostly switched over from unknown destinations. Farmers in Brazil’s key soybean state of Mato Grosso are reportedly planning to plant earlier than normal to take advantage of better rainfall and limit any potential delays for the second corn crop, which is planted after soybeans are harvested. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher, adjusting product spreads.
Corn was mixed, mostly firm, consolidating. Corn is also assessing the impact of the recent rain, while monitoring interior movement and shipping delays after Ida. Movement on the lower Mississippi River is stalled, damage has been reported at a couple of key terminals, and power remains out for much of southern Louisiana. The storm’s inland track is also expected to have an impact on movement on the Ohio River. Old crop export sales were a net negative following cancellations by Canada and China but the new crop numbers were solid, with good weekly totals for Mexico, Colombia, and Canada. Corn continues to monitor the harvest of Brazil’s old second crop and planting conditions for the new first crop, along with pre-planting weather in Argentina. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The Renewable Fuels Association says July ethanol exports were 51.6 million gallons, down 37% from June and the lowest monthly sales total since October 2013. Canada took in more than half of the total, with no significant purchases by Brazil, China, or India. Distillers dried grains exports were 1.06 million tons, up 13% on the month, with Mexico, Turkey, and Vietnam leading the way.
The wheat complex was mixed, mostly modestly higher. Forecasts are mixed ahead of winter wheat planting, generally better in the eastern Midwest than in the southwestern and northwestern Plains. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out on the 10th. Export numbers continue to be disappointing roughly one quarter into the marketing year, despite global crop production problems for some of the major exporters. Mexico and Japan were the leading buyers with cancellations by unknown destinations and Brazil. Still, U.S. prices have been in an uptrend recently, which is part of what’s limiting competition. Projections have moved lower recently for the U.S., Canada, Russia, and some European nations, and there are concerns about production in Argentina. Conversely, prospects for Ukraine and Australia are generally solid. DTN says Turkey bought 300,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat.