Soybeans, corn mostly lower, correcting, consolidating
Soybeans were mostly modestly lower on spread trade and profit taking. Beans were a little overbought after the higher moves Tuesday and Wednesday and global vegetable oil were lower heading into the U.S. session, including canola, palm oil, and bean oil. Parts of the Midwest and Plains are receiving rain, but that precipitation is going to miss some other key U.S. growing areas. China and unknown destinations both bought new crop U.S. beans, 133,000 and 132,150 tons, respectively, bringing the month to date total for announced sales to 3,112,940 tons. Old crop export sales were larger than average, while new crop was 1.75 million tons. China led the way for both marketing years. 2021/22 gets underway September 1st. The International Grains Council sees 2021/22 world soybean production at 380 million tons, compared to 382 million in July and 362 million for 2020/21. Month to month, new crop trade and consumption were modestly lower, while carryover was a little but higher. With widespread planting a couple of weeks away, CONAB pegs Brazil’s new soybean crop at a record 141.3 million tons, up more than 5 million from the previous crop’s total due to higher planted area. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on product spread trade.
Corn was mixed, mostly weak, on spread trade and profit taking. Parts of the Midwest and Plains will see rain into the weekend, while other areas remain hot and dry. Corn will need a trend-line yield or better to meet demand, with the USDA’s next production guess out September 10th. Old crop sales were bearish, continuing the recent trend sliding into the end of the marketing year, but new crop was solid. Mexico led the way for both marketing years. Colombia bought 100,000 tons of 2021/22 U.S. corn ahead of Thursday’s open. The International Grains Council projects global new crop corn production at 1.202 billion tons, unchanged on the month and up solidly from the estimate of 1.127 billion for the previous marketing year. The IGC made a modest reduction to the trade outlook, a slight increase to consumption, and left ending stocks steady. CONAB estimates new crop corn production for Brazil at 115.9 million tons, 29% larger than the projected old crop total. The harvest of Brazil’s current second crop is ongoing. Ethanol futures were unchanged.
The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. Weekly export numbers were bearish, a new marketing year low, but it is relatively early in 2021/22 and demand could improve with smaller than expected crops for some major global sellers. That includes Canada, France, Germany, and Russia. The potential La Nina impact on crops in Argentina and Australia is question mark. The International Grains Council lowered their global 2021/22 outlook to 782 million tons, compared to 788 million in July, but still up from the 773 million tons produced in 2020/21. The IGC also cut outlooks for new crop trade, consumption, and carryover. Statistics Canada’s updated guess for Canada is out next week. The U.S. spring wheat harvest is ongoing and the trade is monitoring soil moisture levels ahead of winter wheat planting. DTN says Japan bought 81,853 tons of food wheat from the U.S. and Canada, Pakistan purchased 100,000 tons of wheat, and Jordan picked up 60,000 tons of milling wheat, adding Tunisia is tendering for 100,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat and the Philippines is in the market for 60,000 tons of feed wheat.