USDA cuts corn, soybean production estimates


USDA cuts corn, soybean production estimates

The USDA’s new corn and soybean production projections came in below pre-report estimates and were down on the month, but both are currently expected to larger than a year ago. That will depend on several factors, especially August weather, and both corn and soybeans will need trend-line or better yields to meet demand projections and limit further price inflation for end users.

As of August 1st, corn production is expected to be 14.75 billion bushels, up 4% from 2020, with an average yield of 174.6 bushels per acre higher, which would be up 2.6 on the year. In July, the USDA saw the crop at 15.165 billion bushels with an average yield of 179.5 bushels per acre.

Soybeans are seen at 4.339 billion bushels, 5% more than a year ago, with an average yield of 50 bushels per acre, 0.2% less than last year. A month ago, the USDA had the crop at 4.405 billion bushels with an average yield of 50.8 bushels per acre.

These numbers are based on producer surveys by the USDA, with the first objective field based estimates out next month.

Wheat production is pegged at 1.697 billion bushels, 3% lower than July and 7% below 2020, with winter wheat at 1.319 billion bushels, an increase of 13% from a year ago, and spring wheat at 343.41 million bushels, a drop of 41%. The winter wheat estimates include 776.855 million bushels of hard red winter, 365.508 million bushels of soft red winter, and 176.372 million bushels of white winter. A month ago, the USDA had all wheat at 1.746 billion bushels, with winter wheat at 1.364 billion bushels, including 805 million bushels of hard red, 362 million bushels of soft red, and 198 million bushels of white, and 345 million bushels of spring wheat.

The USDA lowered U.S. wheat ending stocks, while raising old crop carryout guesses for corn and soybeans, leaving new crop beans unchanged for now and reducing the outlook for new crop corn ending stocks.

Just after the release of the report, corn, soybean, and wheat futures moved higher.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out September 10th.