News
USDA adjusts carryout estimates
Adjustments to U.S. corn, soybean, and production estimates lead to changes for ending stocks estimates.
New crop U.S. corn ending stocks are now expected to be 1.242 billion bushels, down 190 million from July, with a cut in production and higher food, seed, and industrial use cancelling out bigger beginning stocks and expectations for lower feed and export demand. The average farm price is seen at $5.75 per bushel, compared to $5.60 a month ago and the old crop estimate of $4.40.
New crop soybean ending stocks were unchanged at a still historically tight 155 million bushels with a reduction in production canceled out by larger beginning stocks and lower crush and export projections. The average farm price is pegged at $13.70 per bushel, steady with last month and up sharply from the old crop guess of $10.90.
New crop wheat ending stocks are estimated at 627 million bushels, 38 million less than the month before, due to reduced expectations for production and feed use. The average farm price for wheat is seen at $6.70 per bushel, compared to $6.60 in July and $5.05 last marketing year.
Globally, the USDA tightened old and new crop balance sheets for corn and wheat, but raised carryout for old and new crop soybeans.
The new marketing year for wheat started June 1st and kicks off September 1st for beans and corn.
The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out September 10th.
Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:
2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 844 million bushels, unchanged from July and down from the 2019/20 total of 1.028 billion bushels. The USDA lowered food use 1 million bushels to 959 million and raised feed and residual use 1 million bushels to 99 million. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $5.05 per bushel, compared to $4.58 for the previous marketing year.
2021/22 U.S. wheat ending stocks are pegged at 627 million bushels, compared to 665 million last month. The USDA has production at 1.697 billion bushels, 49 million lower, leaving the total supply at 2.696 billion bushels. Food use was down 1 million bushels at 962 million and feed and residual use was cut 10 million bushels to 160 million, for domestic use of 1.184 billion bushels and total use of 2.059 billion. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $6.70 per bushel.
2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.117 billion bushels, compared to 1.082 billion in July and 1.919 billion for 2019/20. The UDSA raised feed and residual use 40 million bushels to 6.51 billion, including an increase of 25 million bushels in ethanol use to 5.075 billion, for domestic use of 12.235 billion bushels. With a 75 million bushel cut in exports to 2.775 billion bushels, total use is seen at 15.01 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4.40 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago and above the $3.56 for the previous marketing year.
2021/22 U.S. corn ending stocks are expected to be 1.242 billion bushels, compared to 1.432 million last month. The USDA reduced production by 415 million bushels, which, with the rise in beginning stocks, puts the total supply at 15.892 billion bushels. Feed and residual use and exports were both cut 100 million bushels to 5.625 billion and 2.4 billion bushels, respectively, while fed and residual use was raised 10 million bushels to 6.625 billion, for total use of 14.65 billion bushels. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $5.75 per bushel, compared to $5.60 in July.
2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 160 million bushels, compared to 135 million a month ago and 525 million in the prior marketing year. Crush demand was lowered 15 million bushels to 2.155 billion and exports were cut 10 million bushels to 2.26 billion, for total use of 4.52 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $10.90 per bushel, compared to $11.05 last month and $8.57 last marketing year.
2021/22 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, steady with July. The USDA raised beginning stocks, while cutting production 66 million bushels to 4.339 billion, for a total supply of 4.533 billion bushels. Crush and export use were both lowered 20 million bushels, down to 2.205 billion and 2.055 billion bushels, respectively, and residual use was down 1 million bushels to 14 billion, for total use of 4.379 billion bushels. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $13.70 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago.
2020/21 world wheat ending stocks are estimated at 288.83 million tons, compared to 291.68 million last month. The USDA raised production slightly to 775.84 million tons on an increase for Argentina. Domestic feed use is pegged at 158.2 million tons, compared to 158.32 million a month ago, with exports of 201.63 million tons, compared to 201.42 million in July.
2021/22 world wheat ending stocks are expected to be 279.06 million tons, compared to 291.68 million a month ago. Production was slashed to 776.91 million tons as reduced expectations for Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia canceled out rises for Australia, the European Union, North Africa, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. Domestic feed use is seen at 157.37 million tons, compared to 160.55 million in July, with exports of 198.23 million tons, compared to 203.99 million last month, following cuts for Canada and Russia, which offset increases in Australia, the European Union, and Ukraine.
2020/21 world corn ending stocks are projected at 280.75 million tons, compared to 279.86 million in July. Global production was lowered to 1.115 billion tons, mostly on a 6 million ton cut for Ukraine. Domestic feed use is anticipated to be 727.71 million tons, compared to 727.33 million last month, with exports of 178.5 million tons, compared to 178.5 million a month ago, with a cut for Brazil due to lower production, against increases for Argentina and Ukraine.
2021/22 world corn ending stocks are pegged at 284.63 million tons, compared to 291.18 million last month. World production is seen at 1.186 billion tons, compared to 1.195 billion in the prior report due to reductions for the U.S. and European Union against rises for Russia and Ukraine. Domestic feed use is expected to be 743.89 million tons, compared to 747.59 million in July, with exports of 197.85 million tons, compared to 198.84 million a month ago. The USDA lowered the outlook for the U.S. and raised export expectations for Russia and Ukraine.
2020/21 world soybean stocks are estimated at 92.82 million tons, compared to 91.49 million in July. Global production was down modestly at 343.66 million tons due to a cut for Argentina. The USDA also lowered imports by China 1 million tons to 97 million. Domestic crush use is pegged at 319.07 million tons, compared to 321.97 million a month ago, with exports of 164.93 million tons, compared to 165.49 million last month.
2021/22 world soybean ending stocks are projected at 96.15 million tons, compared to 94.49 million a month ago. Global production was down from July at 383.63 million tons because of the lower U.S. guess. The USDA lowered imports by China 1 million tons to 102 million. Domestic crush use is pegged at 329.57 million tons, compared to 332.04 million in July, with exports of 172.33 million tons, compared to 172.85 million last month due to that U.S. reduction.