Corn, soybeans mostly up ahead of USDA numbers
Soybeans were mostly higher, adjusting spreads. China bought another 132,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans, pushing the running total over the past five business days to 929,000 tons. There’s talk of more sales announcements and those purchases attributed to unknown destinations could be switched to China for delivery. The USDA’s weekly numbers are out Thursday morning at 8:30 Eastern/7:30 Central. Beans are also watching development conditions, needing a trend-line yield or better to meet demand expectations and limit further price inflation for end users. Ahead of Thursday’s production update, the average estimate is 4.375 billion bushels with an average yield of 50.4 bushels per acre, compared to July’s projections of 4.405 billion bushels and 50.8 bushels per acre. 2020/21 U.S. ending stocks are seen at 148 million bushels, compared to the last guess of 135 million, with 2021/22 projected 159 million bushels, compared to 155 million a month ago. Global old crop ending stocks are expected to be 91.7 million tons, compared to 91.49 million a month ago, with new crop at 94.65 million tons, compared to the previous projection 94.49 million tons. There was also spillover for beans from global vegetable oil strength, including a mostly higher move in soybean oil futures. Soybean meal was down, adjusting product spreads.
Corn was mostly higher on spread adjustments. Corn was getting ready for the USDA’s supply, demand, and production numbers out Thursday at Noon Eastern/11 Central. The average estimate for corn is 15.004 billion bushels with an average yield of 177.6 bushels per acre, compared to 15.165 billion and 179.5 bushels per acre last month. Old crop ending stocks are expected to be 1.096 billion bushels, compared to 1.082 billion in July, with new crop at 1.297 billion bushels, compared to 1.432 billion in the prior report. 2020/21 world corn ending stocks are projected at 278.74 million tons, compared to 279.86 million a month ago, with 2021/22 at 288.23 million tons, compared to 291.18 million in the last update. 2020/21 Brazilian production is estimated at 88.72 million tons, compared to 93 million last month and CONAB’s most recent guess of 86.65 million tons. Near-term U.S. weather forecasts are mixed, much better in some areas than in others. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says last week’s ethanol production was a 13-week low at 986,000 barrels a day, down 27,000 on the week, but up 68,000 on the year, with the supply hitting a four-week low at 22.276 million barrels, a decrease of 373,000 from the previous week, but an increase of 2.526 million from a year ago.
The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago steady to weak and Kansas City and Minneapolis modestly lower. The USDA is expected to lower U.S. wheat production Thursday and could also cut outlooks for Canada and Russia. There are also concerns about parts of the European Union and some emerging dry weather in Argentina. Those anticipated cuts might be offset by higher estimates for other global growers, including Australia, and world ending stocks are expected to remain ample. For U.S. wheat, the average guess is 1.723 billion bushels, compared to 1.746 billion in July, with a slight decline for winter wheat and a substantial cut for spring wheat. 2021/22 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 644 million bushels, compared to 665 million a month ago, with the global new crop supply at 288.15 million tons, compared to 291.68 million last month. Old crop world stocks are seen at 290.54 million tons, compared to 290.18 million the month before. Rain is in the forecast for parts of the spring wheat region, but it’s probably too late. DTN says Thailand is tendering for 139,500 tons of feed wheat.