Soybeans down, corn mostly lower on near-term weather

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Soybeans down, corn mostly lower on near-term weather

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. 60% of U.S. beans are rated good to excellent, the lowest rating for late June in a few years. Still, there’s expected to be at least some improvement in next week’s update thanks to this week’s weather. Planting is nearly wrapped up with the trade waiting to see just how much actual planted area differs from the USDA’s planting intentions numbers from the end of March. The USDA’s 2021 planted area totals are out June 30th, along with quarterly grain stocks. Most forecasts have more rain in parts of the region later this week, but it could miss some of the drier areas and outlooks generally have a return to high temperatures. There’s been more talk of China buying U.S. beans, but no confirmation since Monday morning. Brazil continues to dominate the export market because of price and seasonal factors. The trade is also monitoring dry weather potentially impacting movement on the Parana River, which have already complicated shipping from Argentina, the world’s biggest exporter of soybean products. Soybean meal was down on commercial selling, while bean oil was mixed on bull spreading.

Corn was mixed, mostly sharply lower. 65% of corn is rated good to excellent, down on the week, with concerns about weather as we get closer to July. Forecasts will change, but many have a heat ridge forming in western areas and moving east late this month into early next month. Near-term conditions are expected to aid ratings in some areas, but July is a key development period. Early yield results for Brazil’s critical second crop are reportedly on the low end of estimates. The USDA and Brazil’s equivalent of the USDA, CONAB, will officially update their estimates in mid-July, with many analysts expecting the guesses to be down sharply. The European Union’s crop agency MARS raised its corn average yield projection slightly. Ethanol futures were higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was mixed. Minneapolis was up solidly following the big week-to-week dive in the USDA’s spring wheat crop rating. The recent rainfall did miss parts of the northern and northwestern U.S. Plains and near-term outlooks generally continue to be dry, likely impacting yield significantly. Chicago and Kansas City were down, monitoring winter wheat harvest activity, with further delays probable in some areas and possible quality issues. Globally, parts of Russia’s spring wheat region need rain, but conditions generally look favorable for a big, if not record, world wheat crop. The E.U.’s crop agency MARS increased its outlook for the soft yield, which, if realized, would be up more than 5% from the five-year average. France’s AgriMer says 81% of that nation’s soft wheat crop is in good to excellent condition, compared to 56% a year ago. DTN says Japan is tendering for 159,665 tons of food wheat from the U.S. and/or Canada.