Soybeans, corn mixed, watching crop weather
Soybeans were mixed, mostly higher, adjusting old crop/new crop spreads. It was a hot, dry weekend in some key U.S. growing areas, with uncertainties about chances for relief in those areas this week as the U.S. and European models differed during the session. Conditions generally look better in eastern portions of the U.S. growing region. The USDA says that in the first rating of the season, 67% of beans are rated good to excellent, 5% below a year ago, with 90% of the crop planted, compared to the five-year average of 79%, and 76% has emerged, compared to 59% on average. New USDA supply, demand, and production numbers are out this Thursday, but the USDA’s domestic production estimates aren’t expected to change until the updated acreage numbers at the end of the month. Soybean meal was lower on commercial selling, while bean oil was mostly higher on bear spreading. U.S. soybean export inspections were up on the week, down on the year, with Mexico and Indonesia taking the top slots. The current marketing year for beans, and corn, runs through the end of August. China’s General Administration of Customs says May soybean imports were 9.61 million tons, compared to 7.45 million for April and 9.38 million for May 2020 as backlogged shipments left Brazil. Year to date purchases are 38.23 million tons, ahead of the year ago pace.
Corn was mostly higher on spread adjustments. Corn was also watching crop development weather, expecting a week-to-week decline in the USDA’s condition rating. As of Sunday, 72% of corn is in good to excellent shape, 4% less than last week and 3% under last year, with the crop fully planted and 90% emerged, compared to the normal rate of 82%. Dry weather in parts of Brazil continues to impact their second corn crop. Informa sees production at 88 million tons, compared to the USDA’s last guess of 102 million. The USDA is expected to lower its projection for Brazil’s crop Thursday at Noon Eastern/11 Central, while CONAB’s new production estimate is out Thursday morning. Ethanol futures were unchanged. U.S. export inspections were down on the week, up on the year, with China and Japan the biggest destinations. France’s Ag Ministry says 91% of that nation’s corn crop is in good to excellent condition.
The wheat complex was mostly lower. Minneapolis was pressured by profit taking, unable to follow through on overnight gains despite weather concerns, and Kansas City was down on early harvest pressure from the central and southern U.S. Plains. Chicago was mostly lower ahead of the weekly crop progress and condition numbers. For winter wheat, 50% of the crop is called good to excellent, up 2% on the week, but down 1% on the year, with 85% of the crop headed, compared to 86% on average, and 2% harvested, compared to the normal pace of 7%. For spring wheat, 38% is called good to excellent, 5% lower than a week ago and 44% below a year ago, with 90% emerged, compared to the five-year average of 86%. Global crop conditions generally look good, with parts of the Canadian Prairies seeing cooler temperatures and rain in most forecasts. U.S. export inspections were higher than last week, lower than last year, with the Philippines and Mexico leading the way. The 2021/22 marketing year for wheat started June 1st. DTN says Iran bought 195,000 tons of milling wheat in an international tender and that Algeria is in the market for an unspecified amount of milling wheat from the European Union.