Corn ekes out a modest gain
Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. It was an up and down day for beans, with occasional support from the tight domestic supply. Near-term planting and development conditions generally look beneficial, but the crop isn’t fully planted yet and harvest is months away. The trade expects the USDA to eventually report a higher than initially projected acreage total as producers try to meet demand expectations and bolster that supply. The USDA might not update planted area until August’s reports. Cash bids by domestic processers have moved lower and there’s more talk of U.S. soybean imports from Brazil. A strike by tugboat captains has halted ship movement at Argentina’s port of Rosario. Argentina is the world’s biggest exporter of soybean products. Soybean meal was mixed, adjusting old crop/new crop spreads, and bean oil was lower on demand uncertainties due to concerns about vegetable oil demand in parts of Asia as coronavirus cases flare up, which spilled over into beans.
Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Corn was a little oversold after Tuesday’s sharply lower finish, also looking at a tight supply and generally good near-term weather. The trade is monitoring old and new crop export demand from China. China has recently canceled on previously purchased 2019/20 corn and bought a significant amount of 2020/21 earlier in the month, but the USDA hasn’t announced any new U.S. corn sales in a few days. China’s domestic corn prices have moved lower lately but remain well above U.S. prices. The USDA’s weekly export sales numbers are out Thursday morning at 8:30 Eastern/7:30 Central. Forecasts do have some rain in parts of Brazil, but it likely won’t be enough to save yields after generally hot, dry weather during key development phases and a recent frost. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.011 million barrels a day last week, up 21,000 on the week and 287,000 on the year, while stocks dove to the lowest levels since late 2016 at 18.98 million barrels, a drop of 453,000 from the previous week and 4.196 million from this time last year.
The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Most forecasts have more rain in many U.S. winter and spring wheat growing areas over the next week. Flash flooding could be an issue in parts of the central Plains. Longer-term outlooks are a little more uncertain for parts of the spring wheat region, from the northern and northwestern U.S. Plains into Canada. Drier than normal weather is also have an impact on white wheat in the northwestern Plains. Global conditions generally look good, with rain in the forecast for parts of Russia and Ukraine. The European Union’s crop agency MARS raised its soft wheat average yield guess, which is now expected to be up on the year and above average. India’s farm ministry sees 2021 production at 108.75 million tons, a little bit below the last guess, but still record large. The USDA’s next set of international production estimates is out in the upcoming supply and demand projections June 10th. DTN says Japan is tendering for 124,620 tons of food wheat from the U.S. and/or Canada, while Algeria is in the market for 50,000 tons of durum.