USDA lowers old crop U.S. cotton ending stocks guess
The USDA lowered old crop U.S. cotton ending stocks and left rice unchanged from April.
Cotton is now projected at 3.3 million bales, down 600,000 on the month, on a lower production estimate and higher export demand, while anticipating an even tighter supply and higher average farm price next marketing year.
Rice ending stocks were steady at 42.9 million hundredweight, with no changes to the balance sheet, with stocks expected to be tighter next marketing year because of lower production.
Globally, old crop cotton and rice ending stocks were modestly lower, generally because of increased demand expectations, with the USDA also projecting tighter supplies next marketing year, which starts August 1st.
The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out June 10th.
Comparisons for domestic ending stocks projections:
2020/21 U.S. cotton ending stocks are seen at 3.3 million bales, compared to 3.9 million in April and 7.25 million for 2019/20. Production was lowered 900,000 bales to 14.61 million bales, pulling the total supply to 21.86 million. Exports were raised 500,000 bales to 16.25 million, taking total use to 18.55 million bales, while unaccounted for supplies were taken from 0 bales to 100,000. The average 2020/21 farm price for upland cotton is estimated at $.68 per pound, unchanged from a month ago and up from the $.596 the previous marketing year.
2021/22 U.S. cotton ending stocks are pegged at 3.1 million bales, with production of 17 million, a total supply of 20.3 million, exports of 14.7 million bales, and an average farm price for upland cotton of $.70 per pound.
2020/21 U.S. rice ending stocks were unchanged at 42.9 million hundredweight, compared to 28.7 million last marketing year with no adjustments to the balance sheet. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $13.90 per hundredweight, compared to $13.60 in 2019/20.
2021/22 U.S. rice ending stocks are estimated at 41 million hundredweight, with production of 203.6 million, imports of 38.5 million hundredweight, exports of 88 million, and an average farm price of $14.20 per hundredweight.