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How long before growing dairy herd peaks?
A dairy analyst says continued strong milk production growth in nearly every state is concerning for prices heading into spring.
Luke Fuess with Highground Dairy says the nation’s dairy herd is starting out about 100,000 head larger than last year which is likely tied to a better cash position for farms following ad hoc government payments.
“We’ve seen incredible production from states like Texas and South Dakota and California that would be largely driven by larger farms, but we’ve also seen really strong output gains from places like Ohio or Michigan and Indiana as the Glanbia/DFA/Select cheese plant ramps up,” he says. “We’ve seen really strong gains across places like Minnesota and Wisconsin,” he says.
He tells Brownfield the increase in cow numbers likely means a steady stream of excess milk production during the spring flush and while added processing will help absorb some of the flow, stocks are still high.
“If we have these cheese and butter stocks hanging over us into summer and into the end of the year, it’s a negative factor that will weigh on prices,” he says.
Fuess says 2021 feed costs are the strongest in several years and should put enough pressure on margins to cause production cutbacks by the second half of the year.
He was a featured speaker during this week’s National Milk Producers Federation Young Cooperator virtual series.
