Economist says China got closer to Phase One purchase goals than he expected

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Economist says China got closer to Phase One purchase goals than he expected

Significant purchases of US ag goods by China in the past five months has bumped the country closer to meeting goals set in the Phase One trade agreement.

University of Illinois ag economist Scott Irwin tells Brownfield he is surprised.

“I had become pretty skeptical of their plans, but I think I have been proven wrong. They are not going to get all the way to the phase one targets, but closer than I expected.”

He says the big question is, will China continue those purchases in the second half of the marketing year? He expects the size of South American crops will play a large role in those decisions as well as the change in US administration.

“Was this surge in Chinese buying viewed by them as a hedge against President Trump being re-elected and they won’t need to continue those because he was not re-elected? Or will there be warmer relations through a Biden administration? It is very hard to tell.”

Data from the American Farm Bureau shows at the end of November, China had made more than $22.4 million in purchases, 24% below the estimated pace needed to meet obligations under the trade deal.

Interview with Scott Irwin

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