Market News
Soybeans, corn up, watching weather in South America
Soybeans were modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Weekend rainfall in South America was mixed, generally better in some areas than in others, with long-term precipitation concerns because of La Nina. Safras e Mercado says 67.3% of Brazil’s soybean crop is planted, compared to 65.9% a year ago and 64.7% on average, with AgRural expecting about 300,000 hectares to be replanted, while still estimating production at a record 132.2 million tons. Brazilian agribusiness firm Datagro says 71.76 million tons of 2020/21 beans have been sold, 53.4% of expected production. Stateside, the USDA says 96% of U.S. soybeans have been harvested, compared to the five-year average of 93%. For 2021, Informa projects U.S. planted area at 89.065 million acres. There have been rumors of new interest from China, but nothing has surfaced. While China was the biggest destination for U.S. beans last week, the lack of any recent announced sales has some thinking Beijing is waiting for the U.S. price to decline. Soybean meal and oil followed beans higher. The NOPA says member firms crushed 185.245 million bushels of soybeans in October, much larger than expected, with bean oil stocks close to pre-report estimates.
Corn was modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Corn is also watching weather in Argentina and Brazil, along with U.S. harvest activity, expecting some areas to have wrapped up or be very close to it. As of Sunday, 95% of corn is harvested, compared to 87% on average. For next year, Informa estimates U.S. corn planted area at 91.742 million acres. There are also unconfirmed rumors about China buying U.S. corn. China was the biggest destination for U.S. corn last week, ahead of Mexico. Ethanol futures were lower. Ukraine’s economic ministry says 3.4 million tons of corn have been sold since the start of the marketing year July 1st, compared to 5.3 million tons a year ago.
The wheat complex mixed, with Chicago and Kansas City up and Minneapolis mostly firm. There are continued concerns about dry weather in the Black Sea region and southern U.S. Plains, providing some support. According to the USDA, 96% of winter wheat is planted, compared to 94% on average, with 85% emerged, compared to 84% on average, and 46% of the crop rated good to excellent, up 1% on the week. According to reports, 99.7% of Russia’s winter grain crop is planted, with a significant amount rating poor to very poor ahead of the crop going dormant. Ukraine’s economic ministry says that since the start of the marketing year, cumulative wheat sales are 11.2 million tons, with the overall pace slower than last marketing year. The global supply fundamentals remain bearish and export demand has slowed down, with the next set of supply and demand estimates out December 10th. Weekly U.S. export inspections were up on the week, down on the year, and remain ahead of the 2019/20 pace.
