Soybeans, corn supported by weather, broader market
Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, in addition to pre-election strength in the broader market during the session. Most forecasts have dry weather over the next couple of weeks in parts of South America. Recent rainfall has helped planting pick up steam, but activity was delayed by a couple of weeks and the crop will need more precipitation in parts of South America. According to reports, 38,000 tons of U.S. soybeans have been loaded and has either started the voyage to Brazil or will soon. The U.S. soybean harvest is a little faster than normal and some areas could wrap up in the next few days. StoneX, formerly FC Stone, estimates production at 4.291 billion bushels with an average yield of 52.1 bushels per acre, and IHS Markit, formerly Informa, pegs the crop at 4.183 billion bushels with an average yield of 50.8 bushels per acre. Soybean meal and oil followed beans higher.
Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying, along with spillover from the outside markets. Corn is also watching weather in South America and U.S. harvest activity, which is just ahead of schedule. Stateside, IHS Markit projects production at 14.502 billion bushels with an average yield of 175.7 bushels per acre and StoneX has the crop at 14.762 billion bushels with an average yield of 178.9 bushels per acre. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out November 10th. U.S. corn continues to have a price advantage on the export market, largely because of tight supplies in key competitors like Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine. Ukraine’s economic ministry says corn exports since the start of the marketing year in July are 2.5 million tons, compared to 4.4 million a year ago. Ethanol futures were lower. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Wednesday.
The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago and Kansas City up and Minneapolis mostly weak. Most forecasts have a return to drier conditions in the Black Sea region and southern U.S. Plains, with the Plains also expected to see warmer temperatures over the next several days. The winter wheat condition rating did improve, but several key states in the southern Plains need more precipitation ahead of the crop heading into dormancy. DTN says Tunisia bought 55,000 tons of milling wheat from an unknown origin, while Turkey is tendering for 550,000 tons of milling wheat, Syria is looking for 150,000 tons of wheat, and Jordan is in the market for 120,000 tons of milling wheat. Ukraine’s economic ministry says that wheat exports since the start of the marketing year are 10.6 million tons, compared to 11.1 million this time last year. There is chatter that China will ban wheat imports from Australia. Harvest in Australia is just getting underway.