Market News
Weather, demand support corn, soybeans, wheat
Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. Most forecasts have at least some rain in South America, but planting has been delayed, which is expected to extend Chinese reliance on U.S. soybeans into early next year. Brazil is suspending import tariffs for soybeans from outside of the Mercosur trading bloc to shore up crush supplies and lower domestic prices. AgRural says 7.9% of Brazil’s crop is planted, up 4.5% from the previous week, but still slower than average. The trade is also watching U.S. harvest activity. The USDA says 97% of U.S. beans are dropping leaves, compared to the five-year average of 95%, and 75% is harvested, compared to 58% on average. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads. Bean oil had additional pressure from a sharply lower overnight move in palm oil futures. Export inspections topped 2 million tons, down on the week, but up solidly on the year.
Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying, with December notching a new high for the year. Corn is also watching planting and development conditions in South America, with Brazil also suspending import tariffs on corn to limit domestic price inflation and increase feed reserves. Safras e Mercado says 47.2% of Brazil’s first corn crop was planted as of last Friday. The larger crop is the second crop, planted after the soybean harvest. Stateside, harvest activity is expected to see delays in some areas over the next several days, while others will see continued progress. As of Sunday, 97% of U.S. corn has reached maturity, compared to 94% normally in mid-October, and 60% is harvested, compared to 43% on average, with 61% of the crop rated good to excellent, unchanged on the week. Unknown destinations and Mexico bought 345,000- and 123,000-tons of 2020/21 U.S. corn, respectively. Weekly export inspections were bullish. Ukraine’s economic ministry says that since the marketing year started in July, corn exports are 1.1 million tons, compared to 2.9 million a year ago. Ethanol futures were higher.
The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, with Minneapolis taking the lead. Parts of Russia did receive rain over the weekend, but not enough to break the drought, and parts of Argentina are also drier than normal. Russian wheat export prices were close to multi-year highs heading into the U.S. session and there’s talk Moscow might start a strategic state wheat reserve. The USDA’s next supply, demand, and production update is out November 10th, which will include international crop production updates. According to the USDA, 77% of winter wheat is planted, compared to the usual pace of 72%, and 51% has emerged, compared to 48% on average. Export inspections were down on the week and the year, but the 2020/21 pace remains ahead of 2019/20. According to Ukraine’s economic ministry, wheat exports since July 1st are 9.6 million tons, compared to 10.2 million this time last year. Syria’s government says it will need to import 180,000 to 200,000 tons of wheat a month to meet domestic demand.
