Market News
Soybeans, corn give back some recent gains
Soybeans were sharply lower on profit taking and technical selling, giving back a chunk of last week’s gains. Most forecasts have rain in dry parts of Argentina and Brazil over the next couple of weeks, but coverage and totals are uncertain and some areas will still have to contend with high temperatures. While the rain should help speed up the planting pace, harvest could be delayed a couple of weeks, which would lead to further Chinese reliance on U.S. beans into early 2021. Beans continue to monitor U.S. harvest activity and anecdotal yield estimates. No new export sales have been announced since last Thursday. The USDA’s weekly export inspections numbers are out Tuesday and the weekly export sales report will be out Friday. Soybean meal and oil were lower on the general bearishness in ag commodities.
Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn is also watching weather in South America as those soybean planting delays also push back corn planting. Planting is underway or close to it in Argentina, but the planting of Brazil’s second corn crop will be delayed because that occurs after the soybean harvest. Brazil’s second crop is the source of most of that nation’s exports. Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and Russia have all taken an increased role in the export market over the past few years and Chinese demand is expected to remain strong. The USDA sees China’s 2020/21 corn imports at 7 million tons and while that mark has already been passed, most of it still needs to be shipped. Ukraine’s Grain Traders Union lowered their corn production outlook to 32.5 million tons because of dry weather. Stateside, harvest conditions look good in most areas this week after weekend rainfall in some areas. Ethanol futures were unchanged.
The wheat complex was mixed on spread trade and profit taking. The complex is watching the impact of dry weather on planting and development in the U.S. Plains, Argentina, and the Black Sea region. Ukraine’s Grain Traders Union pegs wheat production at 25.3 million tons, compared to the last guess of 26.6 million tons, SovEcon says planted area in Russia could decline by 10% to 15%, and the Rosario Grain Exchange says as much as 8% of the crop might not be harvested. Last week’s USDA supply and demand estimates didn’t hold a lot of surprises for wheat with the next set of numbers scheduled for November 10th. The USDA’s weekly crop numbers will be out Tuesday afternoon. DTN says Pakistan bought 330,000 tons of wheat from an unknown origin, with Pakistan also tendering for another 300,000 tons of wheat and Algeria is in the market for 50,000 tons of wheat.
