Tighter ending stocks for U.S. corn, soybeans
The USDA lowered new crop ending stocks projections for corn and soybeans.
The corn carryout for the current marketing year is expected to be about 2.503 billion bushels, down 253 million from August following a cut to the production estimate and an increase for exports, which canceled out a decline in the ethanol use guess and higher beginning stocks. The average farm price is estimated at $3.50 per bushel, compared to $3.10 a month ago and $3.60 for the recently ended marketing year.
New crop soybean ending stocks are seen at 460 million bushels, a cut of 150 million bushels on lower beginning stocks and lower production. Exports were unchanged but could be nearly a half a billion bushels larger than last marketing year. The average farm price is pegged at $9.25 per bushel, compared to $8.35 a month ago and $8.55 for the previous marketing year.
There were no changes to the domestic balance sheet for wheat, with ending stocks holding at 925 million bushels and the average farm price is estimated at $4.50 per bushel, compared to $4.58 the marketing year before.
Globally, the USDA tightened the balance sheets for corn and soybeans, while raising the carryover for wheat.
New crop world corn ending stocks were cut by more than 10 million tons, largely on a downward revision for the crops in the U.S., Ukraine, European Union, and Russia, which canceled out an increase for Brazil, while also raising domestic feed use and export demand expectations. Corn imports for China were left at 7 million tons and while commitments are above that level, most of those sales still need to be delivered.
World soybean ending stocks were lowered by less than 2 million tons, with a modest reduction in global production as smaller outlook for the U.S. was canceled out by an increase for Brazil, and the department raised export and crush demand expectations. The USDA raised the export guess for Brazil and left the import estimate for China unchanged.
World wheat production and ending stocks are both expected to be record large.
The current marketing year started June 1st for wheat and September 1st for corn and soybeans.
The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production estimates is out October 9th.