Lower production and stocks numbers expected from USDA
This Friday’s supply-and-demand report from USDA is expected to show lower production estimates for the U.S. corn and soybean crops and corresponding decreases in new crop ending stocks.
Market analyst Arlan Suderman with StoneX says the corn stocks number is expected to fall more than 300 million bushels from USDA’s August estimate.
“There’s generally an expectation that we’re going to see production decrease sufficiently enough and demand ratchet up a little bit higher that we’ll see corn ending stocks around 2.4 billion bushels,” Suderman says.
The average trade guess on soybean stocks is 465 million bushels. Suderman thinks both the corn and soybean numbers will continue to decrease.
“We anticipate even lower production estimates for both in October and demand could still continue to ratchet higher on the export side,” he says. “So that’s the trend that the trade is going to be watching is, how low does the USDA go on its ending stocks, because that will start projecting for the October report.”
On corn, the trade is expecting an averaged yield of 178.3 bushels per acre and total production of 14.898 billion bushels. The soybean guess is 51.8 bushels per acre and total crop of 4.295 billion bushels.