Export demand, weather support soybeans, corn

Market News

Export demand, weather support soybeans, corn

Soybeans was modestly higher on fund and technical buying, with November notching a new multi-month high. The USDA’s national good to excellent rating fell 3% with an increase in the poor to very poor category following drier than normal conditions in many key growing areas during August and the recent derecho. The latest yield estimate from StoneX is 52.9 bushels per acre, with production of 4.388 billion bushels. The USDA’s next guess is out September 11th. Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans. The 2020/21 marketing year for beans, corn, and sorghum started September 1st. Soybean meal was mostly lower and bean oil was mostly firm on spread adjustments. The USDA says the July soybean crush was 185 million bushels, compared to 177 million in June and 179 million for July 2019. Ahead of the report, the average guess was 183 million bushels.

Corn was modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Corn also saw a decrease in the good to excellent rating and an increase in the poor to very poor category, but contracts are overbought, keeping corn mixed for most of the session. StoneX currently projects 2020 U.S. corn production at 15.085 billion bushels with an average yield of 179.6 bushels per acre. China picked up 596,000 tons of new crop corn. That brings the four-day running total of announced sales to more than 2.4 million tons, all new crop, mainly to China and unknown destinations. Ethanol futures were lower. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and supply numbers are out Wednesday. In July, the USDA says 424.37 million bushels of corn were used for fuel alcohol production, up 12% from June, but down 6% from July 2019. DDGS production was 1,864,135 tons, also up 12% on the month, but down 6% on the year. APK-Inform estimates Ukraine’s 2020 corn crop at 35.1 million tons, a decrease of 8% from their last guess and 2% on the year, citing dry weather during August, with exports at 28.5 million tons.

The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying, shrugging off a mixed session in the dollar index. The winter wheat harvest is officially over and parts of the Plains are much drier than normal ahead of new crop planting. The spring wheat harvest remains slower than average, with more rain in the forecast for some areas. According to reports, wheat protein and yield numbers from the European Union have varied widely, with harvest activity close to wrapping up. The trade is also watching conditions in Argentina and Australia. At this point, the USDA is projecting all-time highs for global production and carryover, with losses in some nations made up by better crops in others. APK-Inform sees Ukraine’s 2020 wheat exports at 17.5 million tons, below year ago levels, with total grain exports of 47.4 million tons, a decrease of 16% from last year. Canada’s new wheat stocks numbers are out Friday.

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