Market News
Corn up on yield concerns
Soybeans were mostly modestly higher, unable to follow through on the solid gains to start the session. Most forecasts have hot, dry weather in much of the Midwest through the early part of the week, potentially harming the crop. Analysts were expecting a decline in the USDA’s condition rating ahead of the weekly numbers. The USDA says 69% of U.S. soybeans are rated good to excellent, down 3% on the week, with 92% at the pod setting stage, compared to the five-year average of 87%, and 4% dropping leaves, matching the average. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out September 11th. The early gains in beans were trimmed by a rally in the dollar and no new export sales being announced to start the week. China’s General Administration of Customs says January to July soybean imports were 55.13 million tons, 18% more than the same period a year ago. Soybean meal was mixed, consolidating, and bean oil was modestly higher on solid vegetable oil demand. Weekly export inspections were up on the week and the year, mainly to China and Egypt.
Corn was modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Corn is also watching the weather, with increasing stress in some key growing areas ahead of a probable pattern change later this week. Still, that precipitation might not reach some of the drier areas. A recent private crop tour did show the impact of weather issues in the Corn Belt, including drought and the derecho storm. As of Sunday, 64% of U.S. corn is called good to excellent, 5% less than a week ago, with 88% at the dough making stage and 44% dented, both faster than normal, and 5% mature, inline with the usual pace. Ethanol futures were unchanged. Weekly export inspections were mixed, with Colombia and Mexico the leading destinations. Coceral has the combined corn crop for the European Union and United Kingdom at 64.6 million tons, compared to 66.8 million in June and 64.8 million for 2019, following hot, dry weather in parts of the E.U. MARS, the E.U.’s crop agency, sees a lower yield for corn, also citing weather.
The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, along with some firm trade in the dollar index. Chicago and Kansas City are watching the tail end of the winter wheat harvest and conditions ahead of planting for the next crop. The spring wheat harvest was expected to be close to the halfway mark. For winter wheat, 97% of the crop is harvested, compared to 98% on average. For spring wheat, 71% of the crop is called good to excellent, up 1%, with 49% harvested, compared to 62% on average. Contracts were mostly higher early but fell to pressure from the dollar and a lack of confirmation of any new export demand. Weekly U.S. export inspections were above the previous week and a year ago, with the 2020/21 pace ahead of 2019/20. Coceral estimates the combined soft wheat crop for the E.U. and U.K. at 129.1 million tons, compared to 129.7 million a couple of months ago and 146.8 million last year because of hot, dry weather in France and the Balkans. Still, MARS raised its outlook for yield slightly, even with a smaller crop. Ukraine’s winter wheat harvest is nearly over, with a running total of 26.6 million tons.
