Analyst says 2019 bean crop likely bigger than projected
A market analyst says last year’s US soybean crop is likely bigger than USDA’s current projection of over 3.552 billion bushels. Randy Mittelstaedt of RJO Market Insights, based in Chicago, shared his insights on Friday’s supply and demand report on a U.S. Soybean Export Council call,“That could have some modest implications on new crop yield ideas as well if last year’s crop performed better than what we originally thought.”
He says the slow pace of exports is a concern and new crop export demand is the ONE driving factor and million-dollar question with China.
“The question really comes down to, though, is the end game on U.S. ending stocks and how this whole situation plays out.”
Mittelstaedtsays the U.S. IS on pace for a large soybean crop.
“As of right now, if conditions remain where they are, we are looking at a crop larger than the USDA’s number.”
While he says the July Supply and Demand report wasn’t surprising for soybeans, it underlined the importance of weather.
“We’re looking at a balance sheet and a demand structure which is encouraging but it’s going to come down to the weather and it’s gong to come down to the ultimate size of this year’s crop.”
Although there’s high heat in the Corn Belt, Mittelstaedt says regular rains are forecast for most of the area.