USDA sees record corn crop, bigger old crop carryouts
The USDA expects record corn production in 2020, assuming normal weather conditions. The department left planted area unchanged at 97 million acres and sees the average yield at 178.5 bushels per acre, for a crop of 15.995 billion bushels.
Old crop ending stocks were up modestly on the month with bigger exports and feed mostly cancelling out reduced outlooks for food and ethanol use while new crop ending stocks could top 3.3 billion bushels on that expected record crop, even with projected demand increases.
U.S. soybean production this year is expected to be 4.125 billion bushels, also assuming normal weather during the growing season. Old crop ending stocks were up on the month because of a lower export estimate, while new crop stocks are seen at 405 million bushels, with larger production mostly canceled out by better demand.
Old crop wheat ending stocks were modestly higher than last month on a reduced guess for exports and new crop stocks are pegged at 909 million bushels because of a smaller crop and a mixed demand outlook.
The USDA is projecting bigger world corn, soybean, and wheat crops in the 2020/21 marketing year. Global corn production is expected to be record large with an all-time high for the U.S. crop, while the world soybean production outlook is supported by forecasts for increased production in the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil, and the global wheat crop is expected to grow with higher projections for several export competitors cancelling out a smaller U.S. crop. Chinese soybean demand is also expected to increase in the new marketing year.
For old crop, the USDA cut soybean production in Argentina and Brazil, but left corn unchanged in both countries, and raised the soybean import guess for China.
The 2020/21 marketing year gets underway June 1st for wheat, September 1st for corn and soybeans, and October 1st for soybean products.
The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out June 11th.