USDA lowers U.S. cotton supply projection


USDA lowers U.S. cotton supply projection

The USDA tightened the domestic supply outlook for cotton, while leaving rice ending stocks unchanged on the month. Cotton ending stocks are projected at 5.1 million bales, down 300,000 from March following a reduction in the 2019 production and yield totals and lowered the average farm price for upland cotton $.02 to $.60 per pound. Rice ending stocks were steady with no changes to the balance sheet or the estimated price, left at $13 per hundredweight.

Globally, cotton ending stocks and production were higher, with the lower U.S. crop estimate canceled out by increases for central Asia, Africa, and the southern hemisphere, with exports also up modestly. The USDA did decrease its’ cotton import guess for China. World rice production and ending stocks were above a month ago, mainly on a bigger crop for India, while exports were slightly lower.

The USDA’s marketing year for cotton and rice runs through the end of July.

The next set of supply and demand estimates is out April 9th.

2019/20 U.S. cotton ending stocks are seen at 5.1 million bales, compared to 5.4 million in February and 4.85 million for 2018/19. The USDA revised production to 19.8 million bales with an average yield of 805 pounds per acre, taking the total supply to 24.66 million bales. There were no changes for demand. The estimated 2019/20 farm price for upland cotton is $.60 per pound, compared to $.62 a month ago and $.703 the previous marketing year.

2019/20 U.S. rice ending stocks are pegged at 30 million hundredweight, compared to 30 million last month and 44.9 million last marketing year. There were no changes to either the supply side or the demand side of the balance sheet. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $13 per hundredweight, compared to $13 in February and $12.60 for 2018/19.

2019/20 world cotton ending stocks are projected at 83.4 million bales, compared to 82.12 million a month ago. Production was up slightly on the month at 121.59 million bales, including an increase for Brazil, largely canceling out a lower U.S. guess. Domestic use is estimated at 118.16 million bales, compared to 119.01 million last month, with exports of 43.6 million bales, compared to 43.54 million in February.

2019/20 world rice ending stocks are expected to be 182.3 million tons, compared to 178.09 million last month. Production is pegged at 499.31 million tons, primarily on a 3 million ton increase for India. Domestic use is seen at 492.32 million tons, compared to 492.32 million in February, with exports of 44.28 million tons, compared to 44.81 million a month ago.

The USDA says 2019 upland cotton ginnings as of March 1st are 18.656 million bales, up 1,943,300 from March 1st, 2018 because of a bigger crop. The top state is Texas, followed by Georgia, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The USDA’s prospective planting estimate for the 2020 season is out March 31st.

Ginning totals for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: 1,497,900 bales, compared to 1,249,500 a year ago

Missouri: 827,350 bales, compared to 754,850 a year ago

Tennessee: 942,200 bales, compared to 762,550 a year ago

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